Do Wall Street Analysts Like HCA Healthcare Stock?

With a market cap of $88 billion, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is one of the largest healthcare services companies in the U.S., operating a vast network of hospitals, surgery centers, freestanding emergency rooms, urgent care facilities, and physician practices. Headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, HCA leverages its enormous scale to streamline operations, share technology and clinical expertise, and improve purchasing efficiency across its network.

Shares of HCA Healthcare have struggled to keep up with the broader market over the past 52 weeks. HCA stock has risen marginally over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 19.5%. In addition, the stock has declined 13% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX's 11.6% return.

Looking closer, shares of the company have also underperformed the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLV) 25.4% increase over the past 52 weeks and 11.4% rise in 2026.

On July 24, HCA Healthcare delivered a solid Q2 2026 performance, and investors responded by pushing the stock 1.5% higher. Revenue climbed 8.7% year over year to $20.23 billion, while adjusted EPS rose 11% to $7.59 and adjusted EBITDA increased 4.6% to $4.03 billion. The company’s vast hospital network continued to see healthy demand, with same-facility admissions up 2.5%, equivalent admissions rising 2.7%, and ER visits increasing 3.6%.

Despite the strong revenue and patient-volume growth, HCA trimmed its full-year 2026 outlook, reflecting ongoing payer and service-mix pressures. The company now expects revenue of $77 billion to $79.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $15.4 billion to $16.1 billion, and EPS of $28.70 to $30.50.

For the fiscal year ending in December 2026, analysts expect HCA’s adjusted EPS to rise 4.5% year over year to $29.47. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on another occasion. 

Among the 25 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 13 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” 10 “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”

The configuration is bearish than two months ago when the stock had 14 “Strong Buy” suggestions. 

On Aug. 20, JPMorgan trimmed its price target on HCA Healthcare to $425 from $490, while maintaining a “Neutral” rating on the stock. The firm adjusted its valuation following an update to its financial model, signaling a more cautious view on HCA’s upside potential.

The mean price target of $453.45 represents a 11.6% premium to HCA’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $579 suggests a 42.5% potential upside.