Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on United Parcel Service Stock?

With a market cap of $88.3 billion, United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is one of the world’s largest logistics companies, serving customers across more than 200 countries and territories. With approximately 460,000 employees, UPS is guided by its purpose of “Moving our world forward by delivering what matters” and its strategy of being Customer First, People Led, and Innovation Driven.

Shares of the U.S. logistics giant have underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. UPS stock has increased 18.3% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 20.2%. Moreover, the stock is up 5.2% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX’s 13.2% return.

Zooming in further, shares of the Atlanta, Georgia-based company also lagged behind the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF’s (XLI) 21.8% rise over the past 52 weeks. 

UPS shares fell 6.6% on Jul. 28 despite beating Q2 2026 estimates because investors focused on the sharp decline in profitability, with operating margin falling 450 basis points to 4.1% and EPS dropping to $0.71. The company’s costly restructuring efforts, including the $1.8 billion spent on Network Reconfiguration and Transform 2.0 through June 30, raised concerns as UPS adjusts to the loss of Amazon deliveries. 

Although UPS raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $91.2 billion and adjusted EPS to $7.22, investors remained concerned about the significant restructuring costs and the transition toward fewer, higher-margin deliveries.

For the fiscal year ending in December 2026, analysts expect United Parcel Service’s adjusted EPS to grow marginally year-over-year to $7.22. The company's earnings surprise history is promising. It beat the consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters. 

Among the 27 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 12 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” 11 “Holds,” and three “Strong Sells.”

This configuration is slightly more bullish than three months ago, with 11 “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock.

On Jul. 28, Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker maintained a “Sell” rating on UPS with a $76 price target.

The mean price target of $117.81 represents a 12.8% premium to UPS’ current price levels. The Street-high price target of $135 suggests a 29.3% potential upside.