What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price for Mosaic Stock?

With a market cap of $6.9 billion, The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a leading global producer and marketer of potash and phosphate fertilizers, which are essential inputs for agriculture. With 13,000 employees serving customers in more than 40 countries, Mosaic is also advancing biological solutions through Mosaic Biosciences to improve nutrient efficiency, crop performance, and sustainable food production.

Shares of the Tampa, Florida-based company have underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. MOS stock has decreased 38.3% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 21.8%. Moreover, shares of the company have declined 9.5% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX's 11% return.

Looking closer, shares of the fertilizer maker have lagged behind the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLB) 17.6% increase over the past 52 weeks.

Mosaic shares fell 1.8% on May 11 after the company swung to a Q1 2026 loss of $257.6 million, or $0.81 per share, from a $238.1 million profit, or $0.75 per share, a year earlier, and missed adjusted earnings expectations despite revenue rising 14% to $3 billion. Profitability was pressured by a $280 million increase in phosphate raw-material costs, higher potash production costs of $84/metric ton, and $442 million in charges related to idling two Brazilian phosphate facilities and job cuts, prompting partial production curtailments in the U.S. and Brazil. 

Investor sentiment weakened further after Mosaic withdrew its annual phosphate production forecast and cut 2026 capital-spending guidance to $1.25 billion, citing volatile raw-material prices, Middle East disruptions, and Chinese export restrictions.

For the fiscal year ending in December 2026, analysts expect Mosaic's adjusted EPS to drop 67.8% year-over-year to $0.73. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed. It has exceeded the consensus estimates in one of the last four quarters while missing on three other occasions. 

Among the 18 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on seven “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” nine “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”

This configuration is more bullish than three months ago, with five “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock. 

On Jun. 30, Morgan Stanley cut its price target on Mosaic to $26, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating.

The mean price target of $26.94 represents a 23.5% premium to MOS’ current price levels. The Street-high price target of $32 suggests a 46.7% potential upside.