September could further increase market volatility. Often termed as Wall Street’s worst month, September has been challenging for traders. According to Yahoo Finance, for the past 98 years, September is the only month in the calendar to have averaged a negative return.
This calls for a more cautious approach, with investors turning to defensive funds to navigate the downturn. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. jobs reports and unfavorable data could trigger market overreactions, leading to panic selling and plummeting stocks.
Potential surprises from a tight U.S. presidential race and the Fed’s upcoming meeting add further uncertainty to the market, emphasizing the need for increased exposure to defensive funds. If the Fed deviates from the dovishness, which has already been priced in by the markets, significant volatility can be triggered.
Increased Market Vulnerability on Heavy Tech Reliance
Heavily tech-reliant portfolios are exposed to the risks of high valuations and concentrated rallies in select names, leaving them vulnerable to significant drawdowns if the AI-driven market bubble bursts. Increasing exposures to defensive funds becomes a smart strategy then.
High market expectations make it challenging for leading tech giants to deliver earnings that meet investor demands, as recently demonstrated by NVIDIA. Despite recording impressive growth in second-quarter 2024, NVIDIA’s earnings failed to meet the high expectations that had fueled its recent rally, resulting in its shares falling 6.4% on Aug. 29, 2024.
Ever since the tech giant released its results, NVDA shares have fallen about 14% (as of Sept. 3). According to Yahoo Finance, NVIDIA’s record sell-off has resulted in about $279 billion being wiped off from the market by investors.
Manufacturing Numbers Heighten September Stress
On the decline for most of the past two years, U.S. manufacturing contracted once more in the month of August, worse than what economists had earlier forecasted. Marking the third consecutive month of contraction, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index increased to 47.2% in August compared to the forecasted 47.9%, according to Yahoo Finance.
All signs indicate that market turbulence is likely to continue, with the current sell-off potentially not being the last one. Investors are expected to tread cautiously as the manufacturing data likely points toward a cooling U.S. economy.
ETFs to Consider
Below, we highlight a few ETF areas that investors could use to navigate the uncertain environment in a better way to protect themselves from the potential headwinds in the economy.
Investing in these sectors not only shields investor portfolios from downside risks and safeguards investments during market distress but also offers gains when the broader market trends upward. These sectors provide dual benefits, protecting portfolios during market downturns and offering gains when the market trends upward.
Alternatively, investors can seize the opportunity to buy the dip and invest in growth funds to capitalize on potential future economic upswings. Investors can consider funds like Vanguard Growth ETF VUG, iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF IWF and iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF IVW.
Quality ETFs
Amid market uncertainty, quality investing emerges as a strategic response as a potential buffer against the potential headwinds. This approach prioritizes identifying firms with robust fundamentals, consistent earnings and lasting competitive strengths. Investing in such high-quality companies can mitigate volatility for investors.
Investors can look at funds like iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF QUAL, Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF SPHQ, JPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF JQUA and SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF QUS.
Consumer Staples ETFs
The potential slowdown in the economy could benefit consumer staple stocks, as these companies manufacture everyday necessities such as food, beverages and household items. Additionally, surging household debt levels could burn a significant hole in consumers’ pockets and prove to be a positive for these funds.
Investors can consider funds like Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund XLP, Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF VDC, iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF IYK and Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF FSTA.
Healthcare ETFs
The healthcare sector is non-cyclical, providing a defensive tilt to the portfolio amid market turmoil. Further, the long-term fundamentals remain strong, given encouraging industry trends.
Funds like Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund XLV, Vanguard Health Care ETF VHT, iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF IYH andFidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF FHLC.
Utility ETFs
Being a low-beta sector, utility is relatively protected from large swings (ups and downs) in the stock market and is, thus, considered a defensive investment or a safe haven amid economic turmoil.
Investors can consider Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund XLU, Vanguard Utilities ETF VPU, iShares U.S. Utilities ETF IDU and Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF FUTY.
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Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP): ETF Research Reports
Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV): ETF Research Reports
iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH): ETF Research Reports
Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT): ETF Research Reports
Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU): ETF Research Reports
Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU): ETF Research Reports
iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL): ETF Research Reports
Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ): ETF Research Reports
Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC): ETF Research Reports
iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF (IYK): ETF Research Reports
Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF (FUTY): ETF Research Reports
iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (IDU): ETF Research Reports
iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF): ETF Research Reports
Fidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF (FHLC): ETF Research Reports
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA): ETF Research Reports
SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF (QUS): ETF Research Reports
Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG): ETF Research Reports
iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW): ETF Research Reports
JPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF (JQUA): ETF Research Reports
