Wheat Falling After Bearish USDA Reports

Wheat did see some slight recovery following a bearish USDA release this morning, but are still lower at midday. Chicago futures are down 10 to 18 cents at midday. Kansas City contracts are trading 11 to 15 cents lower on the session. MPLS spring wheat futures are losing 12 to 16 cents at midday.

USDA’s balance sheet update for the 2023/24 US wheat crop showed a carryout of 702 mbu, as exports were taken to 707 mbu. For the new crop. The balance sheet is looking lest friendly than a month ago, with USDA raising the stocks by 98 mbu to 856 mbu. Some of that was a larger carryover, but most came via production. 

USDA raised the wheat crop by a large 133 mbu to 2.009 bbu, as both harvested acres and yield were raised (by 2.4 bpa to 51.8 bpa). Winter wheat was up 46 mbu to 1.341 bbu, as the HRW total was projected at 763 mbu (+37 mbu), with SRW at 344 mbu (+2 mbu) and white winter at 234 mbu (+4 mbu). The initial other spring wheat figure was tallied at 577.8 mbu, more than 56 mbu above the trade estimates.

Wheat stocks for the world were raised by 4.97 MMT to 257.24 MMT, with a bulk from the US, as both Canadian and Argentine wheat production were raised.

French soft wheat data from the FranceArgiMer showed a 1% drop to the country’s gd/ex ratings at 57%, as the crop is now 4% harvested. 

Jul 24 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.54 1/4, up 10 3/4 cents,

Sep 24 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.55 1/4, down 16 cents,

Jul 24 KCBT Wheat  is at $6.04, up 12 3/4 cents,

Sep 24 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.69 1/2, down 14 1/4 cents,

Jul 24 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.21, unch,

Sep 24 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.02 1/2, down 16 1/4 cents,