Soybeans Holding Firm at Midday

May beans rallied at the open to 20c gains and to nearly $12.20/bu, but futures have given most of it back for midday. The front months are still trading fractionally to 2 cents in the black. Midday Soymeal futures are $1.70 to $1.80/ton higher. Soy Oil futures are firm at midday, mixed within 8 points of UNCH.  

The weekly Export Sales report showed 375,980 MT of soybeans were booked during the week that ended 3/7. That was down from 613k MT sold the week prior and the 655k MT sold during the same week last year. Traders were looking for between 250k MT and 800k MT going into the report. USDA marked the season’s commitments at 1.457 bbu, which is 20% behind last year’s pace - the WASDE balance sheet has full year exports forecasted 13.7% below last year’s total. There were also 94.3k MT of new crop beans booked for export during the week ending 3/7. That took total forward sales to 350k MT vs 1.55 MMT at the same time last year. 

Weekly soymeal export business came in at 209,472 MT for 23/24 and at 96,260 MT for 24/25 delivery. USDA listed Mexico as the top buyer for the week. Meal commitments were at 9.826 MMT as of 3/7, which is 68.6% of the WASDE forecasted total. Soy oil bookings were at the top end of estimates with 11.2k MT sold – exclusively to Mexico and Canada. That is down from the 29.2k MT MY high last week, but is the 2nd largest weekly sale of the MY. 

Traders are looking for NOPA members to confirm between 170.2 mbu and 185.5 mbu of soybeans were processed in February. The average of estimates is to see 178.1 mbu, which would be down from their Jan crush (fewer days in the month) by 4.2% but would still be 7.6% higher compared to Feb ‘23. Survey respondents are also looking for soy oil stocks to increase 5.6% for the month to 1.59 billion lbs. 

Private analyst firm Agroconsult lowered their forecast for Brazilian soy production to 152.2 MMT. The firm referenced a record replant of 2.9m HA or 6.4% of the total area last fall. The firm also projects Mato Grosso to lose 18% off yield vs last year, but see a 44% yield boost for RGDS. 

May 24 Soybeans  are at $11.95 3/4, down 1 cent,

Nearby Cash   is at $11.39 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

Jul 24 Soybeans  are at $12.10, down 1/4 cent,

Nov 24 Soybeans  are at $11.86 1/4, up 1/4 cent,