March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH24) are up +0.12%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH24) are up +0.09% this morning as market participants braced for a flurry of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on the latest retail sales figures.
In Wednesday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages ended higher. Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) climbed over +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the ride-hailing giant unveiled its first-ever $7 billion share buyback plan. Also, IQVIA Holdings Inc (IQV) gained more than +13% after the healthcare data and research services provider reported upbeat Q4 results. In addition, LYFT Inc (LYFT) surged over +35% after the company posted strong Q4 results and said it would generate positive free cash flow for the first time in 2024. On the bearish side, Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) fell more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 net sales.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Wednesday that even if inflation data ticked slightly higher for a few months, it would still align with the trajectory toward the central bank’s 2% target, cautioning against delaying rate cuts for too long. “Rate cuts should be tied to confidence in being on a path toward the target. More data like we have seen in the past six months would indicate that path, but that’s probably too stringent,” Goolsbee said in a prepared speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. At the same time, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr stated that U.S. policymakers need to see more data indicating inflation is returning to target levels before considering lowering interest rates.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 10.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting and a 36.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at May’s monetary policy meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere (DE), DoorDash (DASH), Wendy’s (WEN), Coinbase Global (COIN), DraftKings (DKNG), and Roku (ROKU) are set to report their quarterly earnings today.
Today, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that January Retail Sales will stand at -0.2% m/m, compared to the previous value of +0.6% m/m.
Also, investors are likely to focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at +0.4% m/m in December. Economists foresee the January figure to be +0.2% m/m.
U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes for January will be reported today. Economists anticipate the export price index to be at -0.1% m/m and the import price index to stand at 0.0% m/m.
The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be closely watched today. Economists forecast that the February figure will come in at -8.0, compared to the previous value of -10.6.
U.S. Industrial Production data will come in today. Economists expect January’s figure to be +0.2% m/m, compared to the previous number of +0.1% m/m.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 219K, compared to last week’s value of 218K.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
In the bond markets, United States 10-year rates are at 4.228%, down -0.91%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.66% this morning as investors digested remarks from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and a slew of stronger-than-expected corporate earnings. Data released by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday revealed that the U.K. economy experienced a sharper-than-anticipated decline in the final quarter of last year, entering a technical recession. Separately, the National Statistics Insititute said Thursday that Spain’s annual inflation rate increased to 3.4% in January from 3.1% in the previous month. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated on Thursday that Eurozone economic data indicates inflation is moving back toward the target as previously forecasted, but the central bank still requires further information before it can be sure. In corporate news, Renault (RNO.FP) soared over +6% after announcing a substantial dividend increase and reiterating its target of double-digit operating margins by 2030. Also, Stellantis NV (STLAP.FP) rose more than +4% after the carmaker announced a higher dividend and a new share buyback of 3 billion euros ($3.2 billion). At the same time, Embracer Group Ab (EMBRB.S.DX) plunged over -18% after reporting a slightly weaker-than-anticipated operating profit for the October-December quarter.
U.K.’s GDP (preliminary), U.K.’s Industrial Production, U.K.’s Manufacturing Production, U.K.’s Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change, and Spain’s CPI data were released today.
U.K. GDP has been reported at -0.3% q/q and -0.2% y/y in the fourth quarter, weaker than expectations of -0.1% q/q and +0.1% y/y.
U.K. December GDP was at -0.1% m/m and 0.0% y/y, compared to expectations of -0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
U.K. December Industrial Production stood at +0.6% m/m and +0.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m and -0.4% y/y.
U.K. December Manufacturing Production came in at +0.8% m/m and +2.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y.
U.K. December Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change arrived at -0.3%, weaker than expectations of -0.1%.
The Spanish January CPI stood at +0.1% m/m and +3.4% y/y, in line with expectations.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.21%, while mainland Chinese markets were closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday.
Mainland Chinese markets will reopen on Monday, February 19th.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today and hit a new 34-year high. Gains in heavyweight technology stocks led the overall market higher, with Tokyo Electron Ltd. climbing about +5% and SoftBank Group Corp. rising over +3%. The benchmark stock index currently sits just 800 points, or around 2%, below its all-time high in 1989, which signaled the peak of Japan’s so-called “bubble economy.” Meanwhile, data showed on Thursday that Japan’s economy slipped into a technical recession as it unexpectedly contracted for two consecutive quarters due to weak domestic demand, losing its title as the world’s third-biggest economy to Germany and raising doubts about the central bank’s plans to exit its ultra-easy policy sometime this year. The yen strengthened on Thursday, trading near the psychologically important 150 per dollar level, following a dip to a three-month low earlier this week. In corporate news, Rakuten Group Inc. surged over +15% after losses narrowed in its mobile operations, driven by an increase in subscribers and telecommunication revenues. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.51% to 19.58.
The Japanese GDP arrived at -0.1% q/q in the fourth quarter, weaker than expectations of +0.2% q/q.
The Japanese December Industrial Production stood at +1.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.8% m/m.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) plunged over -5% in pre-market trading after the networking and software giant lowered its full-year guidance and said it would cut approximately 5% of its global workforce.
Twilio Inc (TWLO) slumped more than -13% in pre-market trading after providing below-consensus Q1 revenue guidance.
Applovin Corp (APP) surged about +17% in pre-market trading after the company reported upbeat Q4 results and issued a strong Q1 revenue forecast.
Jfrog Ltd (FROG) soared over +20% in pre-market trading after posting better-than-expected Q4 results and offering an upbeat full-year outlook.
Paramount Global (PARA) slid more than -5% in pre-market trading after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. disclosed in a filing that it had sold off about a third of its stake in the company during the fourth quarter.
Snowflake Inc (SNOW) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after HSBC downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy with a $214 price target.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - February 15th
Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere&Company (DE), Southern (SO), DoorDash (DASH), Digital (DLR), Coinbase Global (COIN), The Trade Desk (TTD), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE), Consolidated Edison (ED), West Pharmaceutical Services (WST), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alnylam (ALNY), DraftKings (DKNG), Genuine Parts (GPC), Targa Resources (TRGP), Laboratory America (LH), Royalty Pharma (RPRX), Reliance Steel&Aluminum (RS), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Corebridge Financial (CRBG), Hyatt (H), Lincoln Electrics (LECO), Zebra (ZBRA), Roku (ROKU), Alliant Energy (LNT), US Foods (USFD), Dropbox (DBX), Procore Technologies (PCOR), Toast (TOST), Globant SA (GLOB), Kinsale Capital (KNSL), Bio-Rad Labs (BIO), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Shockwave Medical (SWAV), Sharkninja (SN), Crocs (CROX), PBF Energy (PBF), Insight Enterprises (NSIT), Cognex (CGNX), Trinet Grou (TNET), 10X Genomics (TXG), Vontier (VNT), Dun And Bradstreet (DNB), Nova (NVMI), Organon Co (OGN), The Wendy’s Co (WEN), Knife River (KNF), Ultragenyx (RARE), Integer Hld (ITGR), PENN Entertainment (PENN), Shake Shack Inc (SHAK), CBIZ (CBZ), Arch Resources (ARCH), Walker&Dunlop (WD), Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT), Yelp (YELP), AMN Healthcare Services (AMN), Nustar (NS), InterDigital (IDCC), Hercules Capital (HTGC), LXP Industrial Trust (LXP), Bloom Energy (BE), Materion (MTRN), Corcept (CORT), Ironwood (IRWD), Appian (APPN), Opendoor Tech (OPEN), Patria Investments (PAX), Garrett Motion (GTX), Tronox (TROX), Sixth Street Specialty Lending (TSLX), Sylvamo (SLVM), Cellebrite (CLBT), Sabre Corpo (SABR), Hanesbrands (HBI), Cohu (COHU), AtriCure (ATRC), Agios Pharm (AGIO), Prothena (PRTA), Geo (GEO), Genesis Energy LP (GEL), Trupanion Inc (TRUP), PDF Solutions (PDFS), LTC Properties (LTC), Elme (ELME), IAMGold (IAG), Aurinia Pharma (AUPH), Employers (EIG), Now Inc (DNOW), PRA Group Inc (PRAA), Universal Logistics (ULH), BJs Restaurants (BJRI).
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On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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