Wheat Rallied Overnight, Fades Back to Break Even

Wheat futures are back to neutral to 4-5 cents in the black going into the weekly Export Sales data release. March SRW had rallied as much as 6 ½ cents early in the evening trade, before giving most to all of it back in by the AM quotes. Chicago wheat futures led the way on Wednesday with 2% to 2.4% double digit gains. Preliminary OI suggested short covering, dropping 1,263 contracts (mostly July). New crop SRW remains at a 15 ½ cent premium to March. KC wheat futures were up by 8 ¼ to 9 ¼ cents on the day. The March-July HRW spread was just 3 ½ cents at the close. Minneapolis spring wheat futures finished up by a nickel as March held the $7 mark. New crop HRS futures have an 18 ½ cent premium to March. 

Minneapolis Grains Exchange reported HRS wheat stocks were 15.473 mbu in warehouses. That is 302k bushels tighter for the week and 5.3% below the same time last year. 

Pre-report estimates for the weekly USDA Export Sales report range between 200k MT and 625k MT for wheat. 

Canada’s Agriculture and Agri-Food agency released their preliminary assumptions for 24/25 grains. Wheat area is projected at 10.73m HA vs the 10.94m HA last year. Wheat yield is expected to recover 8% with net output 4.2% higher to 33.3 MMT. 

Iraq’s Trade Ministry expects wheat output will exceed 6+ MMT for 2024. That would be up from 5.2 MMT last year.  Jordan passed on all offers in its 120,000 MT milling wheat tender.

EU wheat exports were shown at 17.4 MMT for the season through 1/19. That trails last year’s pace by 7.6%. 

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.10 3/4, up 14 1/4 cents, currently up 1 cent

May 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.20 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents, currently up 3/4 cent

Mar 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.25 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents, currently up 4 1/2 cents

Mar 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $7.04 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents, currently up 4 1/4 cents