Wheats Extend Bounce through Wednesday

Front month wheat futures were 1.7% to 4.4% higher on the day, led by the December HRW contract. Open interest in the Dec contracts is falling ahead of First Notice Day. At the close HRW futures were 16 ½ to 27 cents in the black. Front month spring wheat prices were 12 to 12 ¾ cents stronger. SRW futures closed 12 ¼ to 13 ¾ cents higher. 

The Minneapolis Grains Exchange reported wheat stocks were 20.474 mbu as of 11/26. That was 1.1% tighter than last year. 

Pre-report Export Sales estimates for wheat range 200k MT to 500k MT for the week that ended 11/23. 

As of Sunday, the EU reports soft wheat exports for the marketing year to date total 12 MMT - down 18% vs. LY. Weakness in EU prices over the past week (more than $10/MT in 4 sessions) came in part because of a Chinese request to delay shipment of some EU wheat purchases until spring. 

SovEcon lowered their 24/25 wheat output projection by 1.7 MMT to 89.8 MMT citing declining conditions and lower farm margins. 

Estimates going into the StatsCan Crop Production report show traders are looking for wheat output around 31.1 MMT, and between 29.3 and 32.3 MMT. Last year’s wheat production was 29.8 MMT, and USDA is currently using 31 MMT. By class, traders are looking for StatsCan to show 24 MMT for spring wheat and 4.1 for durum. 

Dec 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.56, up 12 1/4 cents,

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.85 3/4, up 13 3/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $4.75 5/8, up 11 5/8 cents,

Mar 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.34 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $5.47 3/8, up 5 1/4 cents,

Mar 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $7.25 1/4, up 12 cents,