Soybeans begin your Friday mostly lower, though off the overnight lows and with a penny gain in the Jan. Meal and oil prices are $1.80/ton lower and 53 points/lb higher so far. CME OI data confirmed yesterday’s soybean futures’ losses were net long liquidation, though the front months collectively only lost 1.2k contracts. There were 10k new calls added on report day as well. Facing overbought conditions and a yield boost from USDA, the soybean futures market fell 12 ¼ to 22 ¼ cents on report day. Soymeal futures were mostly lower on the day, though Dec held on to a dime/ton gain. Soybean Oil futures rallied 34 to 50 points across the front months, as USDA trimmed carry-in and ending stocks for the food and fuel ingredient.
USDA announced a large private export sale to China on Thursday morning, for 1.044 MMT. Unknown destinations also booked 662k MT in a private export sale. Those sales had been rumored earlier in the week. The weekly Export Sales report showed 1.08 MMT of soybeans were sold for export during the week that ended 11/2. That was in line with estimates and included 371k MT of previously announced business. USDA also reported 2.24 MMT of beans were exported during the week, bringing the season total to 11.99 MMT through 11/2. That is 65% ahead of last year’s pace. Export Sales for the products were shown at 193k MT for meal and 2.6k MT for soy oil.
The monthly Crop Production report from NASS raised the national average soybean yield by 0.3 bpa to 49.9 bpa. That raised production by 25 mbu to 4.129 billion. All 25 of it went to carryout, now 245 mbu. WAOB raised wold soybean production by 920k MT, but cut carry-in by 1.6 MMT (Brazil +2, China -3). Few other changes were made, for a net 1.1 MMT tighter carryout at 114.5 MMT.
China’s CASDE trimmed their soybean output by 564k MT to 20.89 MMT citing weaker than expected yields and the early drought. That is still up 600k MT from last year’s output, and compares to USDA’s 21 MMT estimate. The Rosario Grains Exchange reported Argentina’s soy planting was at 11% complete.
Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $13.27 3/4, down 21 1/4 cents, currently down 1 1/4 cents
Nearby Cash was $12.82 3/8, down 21 1/2 cents,
Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.43 1/2, down 22 1/4 cents, currently up 1 cent
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $13.57 1/2, down 19 1/2 cents, currently up 3/4 cent
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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