Corn Working Red into Thursday’s Reports

Corn prices are currently down 1 ¾ to 2 ½ cents, and are sitting at or near their overnight lows, so far in early Thursday futures activity. The help of a new export sale announcement kept corn futures 4 ½ to 7 ½ cents higher on Wednesday. Dec prices were 4 ½ cents off their high for the finish. Dec ’24 prices remain at a 38 cent premium (carry) to spot Dec. 

USDA reported 270k MT of corn was sold to Mexico via a private export sale. Estimates ahead of this morning’s weekly Export Sales report range from 600k MT to 1.2 MMT. New crop export sales ideas top out at 50k MT for the week that ended 11/2. 

Estimates for the WASDE and Crop Production reports this morning on average look for corn yield to increase 0.3 bpa with production of a 15.089 bbu crop. The average trade guess for ending stocks is 30 mbu looser at 2.141 bbu. 

The ERS released their 10 year Baseline Projections, expecting the corn area in 2024 to drop to 91 million acres and to work back toward last season’s 88.6m planted acres by 2027. Trendline yield estimates work from 181 in 2024 to 199 bpa by 2033/34. The roughly 2 bpa per year growth rate matches the historical trend. The majority of the extra corn (74%) accumulates in carryout, climbing to 3 bbu, The farm price is projected to work back lower to $4.50 for the 2024/25 crop and then to $4.30 over the next decade (i.e. the new normal). 

Dec 23 Corn  is at $4.76, up 7 1/2 cents, currently down 2 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash   is at $4.50 5/8, up 7 3/4 cents,

Mar 24 Corn  is at $4.90, up 6 1/2 cents, currently down 2 cents

May 24 Corn  is at $4.99 1/4, up 6 cents, currently down 2 cents