Wheat Fades into Weekend

Futures pulled back from the sharp Thursday gains with a Friday loss. Chicago futures faded 1.2% to 1.7% across the front months, leaving Dec at a net 26 ¾ cent gain for the week. KC HRW ended the session 2.4% lower, limiting Dec’s gain to a dime. Spring wheat futures faded 1% to 1.5% on Friday, but were also 10c higher for the week. /

Weekly Commitment of Traders data showed net new selling from the CBT SRW spec funds, on net growing their net short to 98,788 contracts. In KC wheat, the funds were 23,827 contracts net short on October 3rd. That was a 7.4k contract stronger net short via net new selling. Managed money traders were also adding new shorts in MGE wheat, taking their net short to 20,986 contracts – the strongest since Aug 2020.  

The Rosario Grains Exchange estimates the Argentine wheat crop at 15 MMT, but cited concerns about missing rains. Coceral dropped their estimate for EU grains by 6.9 MMT to 289.8 MMT citing early summer dryness. FranceAgriMer estimated winter wheat was 2% planted as of 10/2, matching last year’s pace. 

Weekly wheat bookings were shown at 273k MT for the week that ended 9/28. That was near the low end of the expected range. USDA showed 167k MT of the weekly sale was HRS, leaving total HRS commitments at 3.43 MMT or 52% of the WASDE projection. Total commitments for all wheat was 9.44 MMT through 9/28, or 41% of the WASDE projection. 

Monthly Census data confirmed 1.454 MMT of wheat was exported in August. That was down 15% from July and was the weakest Aug total since 1971. The season’s total shipment is at 159.6 mbu, or 44 mbu behind last year’s pace. 

Dec 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.68 1/4, down 10 cents,

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.98, down 9 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $4.85 3/8, down 9 5/8 cents,

Dec 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.73 3/4, down 16 3/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $6.11 3/8, down 16 5/8 cents,

Dec 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $7.20 1/2, down 11 cents,