Meal Fading on Higher Beans and BO

Midweek soy trading has meal prices back in the red after initial gains overnight. Losses for the front month Soymeal futures are $3.10 to $3.30/ton. Soybean futures are gaining as much as 7 cents across the front months, though Nov is 13c off the high on a 2c gain for midday. Soybean Oil futures are trading 84 to 101 points higher so far. 

StatsCan reported August’s canola crush was 829k MT, up 31% yr/yr. Canadian Canola Prices are trading $12 CAD/MT higher through midday.

Soy export sales for 23/24 delivery are estimated between 500k MT and 1.2 MMT for the beans, 225k-550k MT for the meal, and 0-10k MT for the oil. Old crop bookings are estimated between 200k MT of net cancelations and 100k MT of net new business for the meal, and +/-10k MT for the oil. 

The pre-report surveys show traders on average expect 244 mbu of soybean stocks for Sep 1. If realized that would be 6 mbu tighter than the September WASDE projection. The range of estimates was 216 mbu and 270 mbu for that quarterly NASS report on Friday. 

Private consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his estimate of US average soybean yield to 49 bpa, with the crop at 4.05 billion. The EIA monthly Energy Review showed biodiesel and renewable diesel production up slightly in June, but capacity utilization dropped to around 85%.

Brazil’s Anec estimated Sep soybean exports at 6.23 MMT, compared to 3.58 MMT at the same point last year. Meal shipments were 430k MT higher yr/yr with 2.18 MMT. Ag Rural reported soy planting at 1.9% finished as of 9/21. That compares to 1.5% at the same time last year. 

Nov 23 Soybeans  are at $13.04, up 1 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $12.39, up 1 cents,

Jan 24 Soybeans  are at $13.23 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 24 Soybeans  are at $13.36 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,