The NASS reports had bullish surprises good for expanded limits on Monday. Soy oil prices closed lock limit higher past eth July’s limitless delivery trade. Meal futures saw $16 to $17.30 gains on the day. Soybeans themselves rallied over 5% in the nearbys and over 6% in the Nov contract to close with 45 to 77 1/2 cent gains. That left new crop at a near $2 gain for the month of June. The soy corn ratio pushed heavily into bean territory at 2.715; while that won’t swing any acreage away from corn, it could inspire some double crop after the wheat is out.
USDA flashed a 132k MT new crop soybean sale to China this morning.
The June Acreage data cut soybean acres by 4 million to 83.5 million. The average of trade guesses was to see a slight 200k acre increase, but even the lowest estimate was only for a 500k acre cut. ND lost the most with a 900k acre cut, as IL also shifted 800k acres from March Intentions.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed a 795.6 mbu soybean supply for June 1st. That compares to 967.5 mbu last year and the trade average guess for 805. The Q3 consumption was estimated at 891.1 mbu, off 7.6% from last year. Of the supplies, NASS had 322.8 mbu still in farmer hands and 472.8 mbu off farms.
Jul 23 Soybeans closed at $15.57 1/4, up 74 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $14.66 1/4, up 85 1/8 cents,
Aug 23 Soybeans closed at $14.42, up 74 1/4 cents,
Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $13.43 1/4, up 77 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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