Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting International Business Machines Stock Will Climb or Sink?

New York-based International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is one of the world’s oldest and most influential technology companies, specializing in enterprise software, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, consulting, and IT infrastructure. Founded in 1911 and currently valued at a market capitalization of $212.2 billion, IBM has played a foundational role in the evolution of modern computing, from mainframe systems to AI-powered enterprise solutions.

Shares of International Business Machines have struggled to keep pace with the broader market over the past year, declining 8.7% compared to the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 30.3% surge. Moreover, in 2026, the stock is down 21.9%, underperforming the SPX’s 7.2% rise.

Zooming in, IBM has underperformed the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), which has returned 57.3% over the past 52 weeks and increased 17.9% this year.

On May 6, IBM introduced new AI capabilities at its Think 2026 conference, expanding both its Enterprise Advantage and Consulting Advantage platforms. The new tools are designed to help companies build and manage hybrid AI systems with greater flexibility, governance, and control using IBM’s watsonx technology. IBM also highlighted collaborations with major companies, showcasing how organizations are using these AI solutions to improve critical business workflows and operations. Investors responded positively to the announcement, with IBM shares rising 2.5% in the following trading session.

For the current year, ending in December 2026, analysts expect IBM’s EPS to rise 7% year over year to $12.40 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is stellar. It surpassed the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.

Among the 21 analysts covering IBM stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 10 “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate buys,” eight “Holds, and one “Strong Sell.”

The configuration is bullish than a month ago when it had nine “Strong Buy” suggestions. 

On Apr. 17, RBC Capital Markets lowered its price target on IBM to $330 from $361 while maintaining an “Outperform” rating. 

IBM’s mean price target of $293.45 suggests upside potential of 26.9% from the current market prices. Its Street-high target of $365 suggests the stock could rally by as much as 57.8%.