Meal Slides as Beans and Oil Rally

Soymeal missed out on Friday buying as beans closed with 1.2% to 1.7% gains and soy oil rallied nearly 4%. For July soybeans that left the board at a net 34c gain for the week, while November added 20 1/2. Soybean oil futures closed with a sharp 5c per pound weekly gain. Meal prices settled Friday $1.20 to $6.80 in the red, which left July at a net 60c loss. USDA did not adjust the soybean cash average prices, still $14.20/bu for old crop and $12.10 for 23/24. The cash prices were also UNCH for the products. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report had managed money firms 13,981 contracts net long on 6/6. That was a 13.5k contract increase mostly via short covering. Commercial soybean hedgers were 79,119 contracts net short after long liquidation. The funds added longs for soymeal during the week, which left the group 65,816 contracts net long. Spec traders were shown at an 18,306 contract net short for soy oil after closing out +15k shorts. 

USDA announced a private export sale this morning for 197k MT of old crop to unknown. 

The monthly WASDE report showed a 15 mbu reduction for old crop soybean’s exports, now at 2 bbu flat. That went into stocks, which are now expected to be 230 mbu on Sept 1. The trade was looking for a 221 mbu figure going in. New crop saw no other changes, as the 15 mbu carry-in went into 23/24 stocks – now estimated at 350. 

Global revisions saw USDA’s WAOB cut Argentina production by 2 to 25 MMT. That was as expected. Brazil’s output was upped by 1 to partially offset, now listed at a 156 MMT crop. The old crop carryout was lifted 320k MT to 101.32. 

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.86 1/2, up 23 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $13.48 1/2, up 15 cents,

Aug 23 Soybeans  closed at $12.96, up 16 3/4 cents,

Nov 23 Soybeans  closed at $12.04 1/4, up 15 1/4 cents,