May corn expired at $6.33 1/4, a full $1.61 below May ’22, and left a 47 cent expiration gap on the weekly charts. July ended the session with strength, closing 4 cents higher. New crop futures initially “bought the fact” out of the USDA reports, but finished the day with 4 to 5 cent losses. That left Dec corn at a $1.24 discount to July, and at a 26c loss for the week.
USDA set the cash price at $6.60 for old crop, unchanged from April, and at $4.80 initially for new crop. The weekly cash price data showed ethanol ranged $2.28 to $2.40/gal regionally – mostly within 2 cents of last week. DDGS were mostly $3 to $8 weaker from $230/ton in E. IA to $2.65/ton in NE. The cash corn oil market was a penny stronger from 55 to 58 cents/lb regionally.
Weekly CFTC data showed corn spec traders were adding longs through the week that ended 5/9. The group was still 109,643 contracts net short. Commercial hedgers added 35k new hedges through the week, which extended their net short by 14k to 113,222 contracts.
USDA’s monthly WASDE showed a 75 mbu cut to old crop exports, now at 1.775 bbu. That lifted the stocks by the same 75 to 1.417 bbu. The trade average guess was to see 1.375 billion. For new crop, USDA set harvested acreage at 84.1m acres off the March Intentions 92m planted. Yields were at 181.5 bpa trendline, leaving output at 15.265 bbu. The average trade guess was to see 15.14. As for usage, USDA has initial export ideas recovering 325 mbu to 2.1 billion, and Feed and Residual climbing 375 to 5.65 billion. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 2.222 billion bushels, compared to the average trade guess of 2.105.
At the global level, USDA raised Brazil’s output but left Argentina unchanged. Brazil is now forecasted at a 130 MMT crop, 5 MMT above the April figure. CONAB yesterday estimated Brazil’s output at 125.4 MMT. Argentina was left at 37 MMT. Initial new crop output baselines are 129 and 54 MMT respectively. The global stocks were shown at 297.4 MMT for old crop corn and 312.9 MMT for new crop. Trade ideas ranged 293 – 299 and 295 – 327 MMT respectively going in.
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.86 1/4, up 4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $6.18 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,
Sep 23 Corn closed at $5.10 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents,
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.08 3/4, down 5 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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