Wheat Markets Lower Post Report on US Stocks

The wheat futures market is still trading fractionally to 8 cents lower across the classes after the report’s initial reaction. The wheat market was a penny to 5 cents lower across all classes into the report’s release. Midday spring wheat futures are down by 1%. The USDA cash average price was reduced by a dime to $8.90/bu. 

USDA’s April WASDE report increased the wheat carryout by 30 mbu to 598 given reduced feed and residual and a 5 mbu import increase. By class, the HRW and SRW stocks were cut by 11 and 14 mbu respectively but were offset by a 31 mbu looser spring wheat carryout and a 21 mbu looser white carryout. Global S&D shifts included a 2 mbu stronger import for China to 12 MMT. Ukraine saw a 1 MMT higher export figure, and Russia was given 1.5 MMT higher exports, coming out of the EU and Argentinian shares. On net compared to March global wheat trade was reduced by 1.2 MMT and global stocks were 2.15 MTM tighter to 212.7 and 265 MMT respectively. 

Ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE report, survey respondents were looking for USDA to raise the U.S. wheat stocks by 8.5 mbu to 576.5 million. Global wheat carryout is estimated at 267 MMT on average, little change from March. 

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization expects the 23/24 global wheat crop will be 786 MMT, down 1.3% from this season’s output. 

May 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.76, down 2 1/2 cents,

Jul 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.86 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $6.19 7/8, down 2 cents,

May 23 KCBT Wheat  is at $8.73 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $8.27 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

May 23 MGEX Wheat  is at $8.67 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents,