Mixed Midday for Hog Market

Lean hog futures are trading 35 to 50 cents higher in the summer and fall months. The nearby April and May contracts are down but by less than 20 cents so far. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was 13 cents lower to $75.51. The CME Lean Hog Index was $76 flat on 3/28, which was down by 25 cents 

Trader estimates ahead of Thursday’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report expect the herd was around 72.834m head on March 1st. That would be 0.2% larger than last year, with the full range of estimates from -1.4% to +1%. The breeding herd is estimated 0.5% higher on average, and Dec-Feb farrowings are figured 1.2% higher on average. Farrowing intentions ideas for Mar-May average 0.8% above last year ahead of the report. 

Weekly pork bookings were 30,386 MT according to USDA’s FAS. That was down 20% from last week but was 10% above the same week last year. Mexico was the week’s top buyer with 14.6k MT of the total. The week’s export was 32,433 MT, also primarily to Mexico, which brough the YTD total to 356,510 MT. That is 1.7% ahead of last year’s pace. 

Pork cutout futures are also mixed with the front months in the red by as much as $1.67, and the deferred months still up by as much as $1.27. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout value was down by 71 cents to $79.55 in the Thursday AM report. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.443m head through Wednesday. That is up 21,000 head from last week and 1,000 from the same week last year. 

April 23 Hogs  are at $76.675, down $0.100,

May 23 Hogs  are at $84.200, down $0.225

April 23 Pork Cutout  is at $81.625, down $0.225,