Will the SpaceX IPO Take Tema’s Space ETF (NASA) to the Moon?

We always refer to a new ETF hitting the market as a “launch.” In the case of the Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA), April 1 served as the launchpad for what might become a popular ETF later this year. And not only because it lifted off when the Artemis II mission did.

Three weeks later, NASA the ticker is up more than 17%. That’s a more than 250% annualized return. “To the moon,” anyone? If only it were that easy. 

The space sector has long been a playground for speculative “blank check” companies, as well as hardware legacy giants. But NASA is attempting to rewrite the playbook by bridging the gap between public markets and the private giants that in this era, actually dominate space exploration.

The defining characteristic of NASA is its treatment of SpaceX. Traditionally, retail investors have been locked out of Elon Musk’s aerospace giant, as it remains a private entity. Tema has bypassed this barrier by allocating 10% to 15% of the fund to SpaceX via private-market equity vehicles.

The NASA ETF thesis is straightforward: running a space ETF without SpaceX is equivalent to running a semiconductor fund without Nvidia (NVDA). SpaceX is the primary infrastructure provider. Like a modern day railroad, upon which the rest of the space economy is built. By including this private stake, the ETF offers a purer level of access to the theme, versus its index-driven peers, who will often overweight the big aerospace companies. 

Beyond that private-market exposure, the fund is a concentrated bet on “pure-play” innovators that handle the hardware, data, and communications of the lunar economy. Here’s the top 10, including the special purpose vehicle which accesses the future IPO of SpaceX.

1. SpaceX
2. Rocket Lab (RKLB)
3. Planet Labs (PL)
4. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
5. Filtronic (FTC.LN)
6. Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
7. Firefly Aerospace (FLY)
8. 5N Plus (VNP.TO)
9. BlackSky Technology (BKSY)
10. OHB (OHB.D.DX) 

Still, traders and investors should always be wary of “too far, too fast” moves. I’ve referred to this in the past as the “Empire State Building” formation in a chart pattern, like the needle at the top of that famous landmark building. 

Look no further than the recent price path of RKLB, one of NASA’s larger holdings. Sure, it is higher than it was when that ETF debuted, but it is currently in a more than 12% decline. This highlights the feast-or-famine nature of chasing popular investment “flavors of the moment.”

This suggests that the initial bump from the Artemis event may be facing a wall of profit-taking or skepticism from the retail crowd, even as institutional flows into NASA remain steady.

NASA is betting on something bigger than a future in space. The commoditization of the lunar corridor. That gives it a chance, since it mixes the volatility of public small-cap stocks with institutional anchor positions.

The bottom line: proceed with caution. Space is the next frontier, but there’s also a lot of “space junk” masquerading as high-quality investment merchandise. 

Rob Isbitts created the ROAR Score, based on his 40+ years of technical analysis experience. ROAR helps DIY investors manage risk and create their own portfolios. For Rob’s written research, check out ETFYourself.com.