Beans Rally into the Weekend

Soybean prices ended the week’s last trade day with 4 3/4 to 10 3/4 cent gains. The board was slightly off the highs from earlier in the day, which had the market in the black for the week. Ultimately May went into the weekend on a net 1/2 cent loss Friday to Friday. Soymeal led the way higher on Friday with $8.10 to $9/ton gains. For May that flipped the contract to a net $1.30/ton gain on the week. Soybean oil futures ended the day 63 to 78 points in the redUSDA showed the cash average B100 price was $4.70/gal in MN this week, down by 8 cents. 

Crude palm oil production in Malaysia was reported at 1.28 MMT, down 7.2% yr/yr for February. Malaysian Palm Prices were 1.12% higher on Friday to a 7-month high of 4,318 ringgits on the continuation chart.  

As of Feb 7th, CFTC data had managed money at 165k contracts net long in beans. The commercials were adding hedges at the time, shown 203,823 contracts net short. 

Ahead of the monthly WAOB report, analysts are looking for USDA to cut the Argentina soybean production estimate 4.4 MMT to 36.7 MMT on average. The full range of estimates going in is from -1 MMT to -9 MMT. For Brazil, the trade is expecting a 100k MT trim on average, but individual respondents carry a +/- 2MMT range. 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange forecasted Argentina’s soy crop at 33.5 MMT, even with their prior figure. USDA’s Ag Attache has Brazil’s soybean output at 153 MMT, steady with USDA’s official forecast. They do have slightly higher exports and slightly lower crush for the balance sheet, ultimately leading Brazil’s carryout to 3.221 MMT relative to the official 2.855 MMT forecast. Agroconsult expects Brazil’s soybean crop to total 153 MMT, steady with their prior assumption. Datagro has 150.81 MMT penciled in for soybean output. 

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.30 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $14.79 3/8, up 9 1/2 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.18 3/4, up 9 1/2 cents,

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.06, up 8 cents,