Stocks Slip Before the Open on U.S.-Iran Talks Uncertainty, Earnings and PMI Data in Focus

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are down -0.53%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are down -0.56% this morning as stalled U.S.-Iran talks and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, dampening risk sentiment.

The U.S. continued its blockade of Iranian-linked vessels, while Iran on Wednesday attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and escorted two of them into Iranian waters. However, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the attacks did not amount to a breach of the ceasefire. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that mediators are pushing for potential peace talks between the U.S. and Iran as soon as this Friday, though little progress has been made so far. The price of WTI crude rose over +1% on Thursday. The 10-year T-note yield rose two basis points to 4.33% as higher oil prices stoked inflation concerns.

Market participants are now awaiting U.S. business activity data and a new batch of corporate earnings reports.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the green, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. The Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) rising over +2%. Also, chip stocks rallied, with ARM Holdings (ARM) surging over +12% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Micron Technology (MU) climbing more than +8%. In addition, GE Vernova (GEV) jumped over +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the energy technology giant posted upbeat Q1 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance. On the bearish side, TE Connectivity (TEL) sank more than -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company reported weaker-than-expected FQ2 revenue.

“Markets are still navigating a fragile balance between improving sentiment and lingering geopolitical risk,” said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. “While ceasefire headlines and periodic reopenings of the Strait of Hormuz have helped ease immediate supply fears, disruptions to flows continue to linger, keeping a residual risk premium embedded in energy markets.”

First-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, and investors look forward to fresh reports from notable companies today, including Intel (INTC), American Express (AXP), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Lockheed Martin (LMT). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +12% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on preliminary U.S. purchasing managers’ surveys, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to be 52.5 and the S&P Global Services PMI to be 50.5, compared to the previous values of 52.3 and 49.8, respectively.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will also be released today. Economists project this figure to be 211K, compared to last week’s number of 207K.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.5% probability of no rate change and a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.33%, up +0.42%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.82% this morning, extending its decline for a fourth straight day, as oil prices advanced amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks and the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. As a net importer of oil and gas, the region remains more vulnerable to shocks from the Middle East, with even a wave of strong earnings unable to boost sentiment. Bank stocks led the declines on Thursday. Travel stocks also sank. At the same time, telecommunication stocks outperformed, with Nokia Oyj (NOKIA.H.DX) soaring over +10% after it reported better-than-expected Q1 adjusted profit and raised growth targets for its AI business. Weak PMI data from the region added to the downbeat mood. A survey released on Thursday showed that business activity in the Eurozone unexpectedly contracted in April, with the Middle East conflict weighing on demand as prices surged. Demand for services tumbled, but that was partly offset by an unexpected uptick in manufacturing momentum. “The hit from the Iran conflict may turn out to be larger than we had been anticipating,” said Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics. In other corporate news, L’Oreal SA (OR.P.DX) climbed over +8% after the French cosmetics group reported stronger-than-expected Q1 sales growth. In addition, STMicroelectronics (STMPA.P.DX) surged more than +8% after the chipmaker posted better-than-expected Q1 revenue and provided strong Q2 revenue guidance.

Eurozone’s Composite PMI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Services PMI (preliminary) data were released today.

Eurozone’s April Composite PMI has been reported at 48.6, weaker than expectations of 50.2.

Eurozone’s April Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.2, stronger than expectations of 50.9.

Eurozone’s April Services PMI arrived at 47.4, weaker than expectations of 49.8.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.32%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.75%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as lingering uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace talks and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz kept investors on edge. Risk sentiment weakened after Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and escorted two of them into Iranian waters on Wednesday, while the U.S. maintained its blockade of Iranian-linked vessels, with no indication that peace talks would resume. Non-ferrous metal stocks led the declines on Thursday. Also, semiconductor stocks slumped after Reuters reported that Micron Technology had urged the U.S. Congress to tighten restrictions on chipmaking equipment sales to Chinese competitors. At the same time, consumer stocks outperformed. “Although traditional consumer segments have not performed well, structural opportunities do exist,” said Wenli Zheng, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price. Energy stocks also climbed. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that Chinese AI startup DeepSeek was tapping external investors for the first time since rising to prominence, aiming to secure funding for research and development. In corporate news, Huaqin surged over +13% in its Hong Kong trading debut, as a growing number of mainland tech companies turn to the city’s capital markets to finance expansion amid strong market sentiment.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed earlier gains and closed lower today as stalled U.S.-Iran talks soured risk sentiment. The benchmark index initially surged above the 60,000 mark for the first time, led by gains in chip-related stocks, but later gave up those advances as falling U.S. equity futures prompted investors to lock in profits. Retail and metal stocks led the declines on Thursday. Hiroyuki Ueno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, said, “Investors have bought the shares on optimism for the [Iran] war’s end until now. But for the index to rise further, they need more positive cues that support the fundamentals that could also lift domestic demand-related stocks.” Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields climbed on Thursday as higher oil prices fueled inflation concerns. On the economic front, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday that Japan’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in four years in April as firms ramped up production amid concerns about supply shortages stemming from the Middle East conflict. At the same time, Japan’s services activity cooled in April as new export orders declined for the first time in five months, limiting overall private-sector expansion to its weakest pace in four months. In other news, foreign investors bought a net 2.38 trillion yen ($14.92 billion) worth of Japanese stocks in the week through April 18th, following a record net weekly inflow of 3.94 trillion yen the previous week, according to Ministry of Finance data. In corporate news, Makino Milling Machine sank over -8% after MBK Partners said the Japanese government asked it to refrain from proceeding with its planned acquisition of the company. Investor focus is now squarely on Japan’s National Core CPI for March, scheduled for release on Friday, which will provide early evidence of the pass-through from higher energy prices. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -8.78% to 27.12.

The Japanese April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) stood at 54.9, stronger than expectations of 51.1.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Tesla (TSLA) fell over -3% in pre-market trading after the company raised its full-year capital expenditures guidance as it pursues its AI ambitions.

ServiceNow (NOW) plunged over -13% in pre-market trading after the business software developer’s Q1 results disappointed investors, and it said some sales deals had been delayed by the Middle East conflict.

International Business Machines (IBM) slumped more than -7% in pre-market trading as the tech company disappointed investors by maintaining its full-year revenue guidance instead of raising it.

United Rentals (URI) soared more than +13% in pre-market trading after the equipment rental company reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results and raised its full-year guidance.

Texas Instruments (TXN) jumped over +10% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted upbeat Q1 results and gave a surprisingly strong Q2 revenue forecast.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - April 23rd

Intel (INTC), American Express Company (AXP), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), NextEra Energy (NEE), Blackstone (BX), Union Pacific (UNP), Honeywell International (HON), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Newmont (NEM), Comcast (CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Baker Hughes Company (BKR), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), CBRE Group (CBRE), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), The Hartford Insurance Group (HIG), Roper Technologies (ROP), PG&E Corporation (PCG), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Dover (DOV), Dow Inc. (DOW), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA), PulteGroup (PHM), VeriSign (VRSN), Principal Financial Group (PFG), Snap-on (SNA), West Pharmaceutical Services (WST), SS&C Technologies Holdings (SSNC), Carlisle Companies (CSL), Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI), Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE), Hasbro (HAS), Old Republic International (ORI), SouthState Bank (SSB), Popular (BPOP), Ryder System (R), Pool Corporation (POOL), Columbia Banking System (COLB), Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL), American Airlines Group (AAL), Valley National Bancorp (VLY), FirstService (FSV), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Glacier Bancorp (GBCI), Ameris Bancorp (ABCB), AppFolio (APPF), Phillips Edison & Company (PECO), Associated Banc-Corp (ASB), Chemed (CHE), Iridium Communications (IRDM), Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI), Eastern Bankshares (EBC), SLM Corporation (SLM), Enova International (ENVA), Tri Pointe Homes (TPH), Bread Financial Holdings (BFH), SkyWest (SKYW), WSFS Financial (WSFS), TowneBank (TOWN), MaxLinear (MXL), Robert Half (RHI), First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC), CVB Financial (CVBF), Visteon (VC), Knowles (KN), Customers Bancorp (CUBI), The Bancorp (TBBK), NBT Bancorp (NBTB), Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP), Hilltop Holdings (HTH), PENN Entertainment (PENN), Strategic Education (STRA), 1st Source (SRCE), The Gorman-Rupp Company (GRC), S&T Bancorp (STBA), Dime Community Bancshares (DCOM), Byline Bancorp (BY), ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB), Orchid Island Capital (ORC), Ladder Capital (LADR), Amalgamated Financial (AMAL), World Kinect (WKC), Marten Transport (MRTN), Heritage Financial (HFWA), OceanFirst Financial (OCFC), Coursera (COUR).