Beans on Rally Through Midday

Front month bean prices are trading 3 1/2 to 12 3/4 cents higher so far through the midday portion of Thursday. Nearby meal prices are up by $5.10 to $7.70/ton. BO prices are near break even within 10 points of UNCH so far. 

The weekly FAS data showed 1.146 MMT of old crop beans were sold during the week that ended 1/19. That was the high end of estimates, and was 16% above last week and 11% higher yr/yr. China was the week’s top buyer, with 940k MT booked including 386k MT switched from unknown. China has 28.24 MMT of soybeans for the 22/23 MY book, or 61% of the total. The season’s commitments were sitting at 86% of the WASDE forecast – compared to 79% last year (which had commitments at 75% of the final for the week of Jan 20th). 

USDA reported meal bookings at 303,934 MT for the week of 1/19. Soybean oil export sales were 2,231 MT – which was a 5-week high but still 89% below the same week last year. 

The EU reported 6.08 MMT of soybean imports for the season through 1/22. That is 19% behind the prior season’s pace. Rapeseed imports reached 4.26 MMT for the season, which is 41% ahead of last year's pace. 

Brazil has now harvested about 2% of the expected record soybean crop, with Mato Grosso around 6%. Forecasts for Brazilian production are coming to consensus around 152-153 MMT.  Scattered rains are in the forecast parts of Argentina and Brazil over the next couple weeks. Oil World provided the bulls with some ammo, projecting the Argentine bean crop would be only 34 MMT, well below USDA’s 45.5 MMT and the latest Cordonnier figure of 39 MMT. 

Mar 23 Soybeans  are at $15.15 3/4, up 13 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $14.79 1/8, up 13 1/2 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  are at $15.08 1/2, up 12 cents,

Jul 23 Soybeans  are at $14.99, up 10 3/4 cents,