Soybean futures went into the 3-day MLK Jr Day weekend with 3 to 8 3/4 cent gains in old crop and fractional to 3 1/4 cent losses in new crop. For the week, March soybeans were 35 1/4 cents higher. Jan expired at $15.38 1/4, a 10 1/2 cent premium to the March. Meal prices settled the session $3.90 to $5 lower. Jan meal went off the board at $513/ton, a $36.70/ton premium to the March. Soybean oil futures faded by 16 to 19 points on Friday, with Jan expiring at 63.25 cents. March BO takes over as the lead month on Tuesday following the holiday. USDA quoted the weekly B100 cash price as $5.70/gal, UNCH from last week’s market.Â
Weekly CFTC data showed managed money firms trimmed their net long by 11.3k contracts to 131,704 as of 1/10. That came via 9k closed longs and 2.2k new spec shorts added through the week. Commercial soybean hedgers added positions, with 15.9k new longs in play against 8.5k new shorts. That left the commercial net position at 166,462 contracts net short as of 1/10. For the products, managed money was 834 contracts more net long in meal and 9k contracts less net long in soy oil.Â
Analysts are looking for NOPA December soy crush to be 182.9 mbu. The full range of pre-report expectations is from 174.4 mbu to 188 mbu. BO stocks are estimated at 1.725b lbs going into the report.Â
China reported their December Soybean imports at 10.55 MMT, completing the 2022 CY with 5.6% lighter volume of 91.08 MMT.Â
BAGE estimated Argentina’s soybean production at 41 MMT for the 22/23 season, while trimming the planted area. BAGE has 35.5 MMT on the table for a final estimate if the drought conditions persist. Weather forecasts have some relief rainfall for Argentina on the menu this coming week.Â
The IGC reduced their global soy production outlook by 3 MMT to 385, as dryness in Argentina offset boosts to Brazil and China. Consumption was also trimmed by 3 MMT, leaving carryout at 54 MMT compared to 45 last season and 55 MMT 2 years back.Â
Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.38 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash  was $14.94, up 8 1/8 cents,
Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.27 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents,
May 23 Soybeans  closed at $15.27 1/4, up 8 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
