Beans are reacting with gains post report, with March up by 26 cents after trading 1 3/4 to 7 3/4 cents higher going in. Meal futures are $7.10 to $8.30 higher so far. Soybean oil was up by 80 points going in, and is now trading a penny in the black. The USDA cash average prices are now $14.20/bu (+20c), $425/ton (+$15), and 68 c/lb (UNCH).
The “final” national soy production number for the 22/23 season is 4.276 bbu (-70 mbu), on 86.3m acres (-300k) and a 49.5 bpa average yield (-0.7 bpa). Going in, the trade was looking for a slight production increase on a 1/10th yield boost. The May trendline yield was for 51.5 bpa.
The domestic balance sheet saw the lighter supply pulled out of use with 55 mbu fewer exports. Ultimately that left carryout at 210 mbu, compared to 220 last month, 233 expected, and 274 last year.
Global S&Ds were adjusted with a smaller Argentine crop, cut down by 4 MMT to 45.5 MMT, While Brazil was upped by 1 MMT to 153. Earlier this morning CONAB reported a Brazilian soy crop estimate for 152.7 MMT, down by 765k MT mainly in the South. Mato Grosso was shown 890k MT higher to 73 MMT. Abiove estimated the soy crop as 152.6 MMT. Yesterday, USDA’s Ag Attache raised their estimate for Brazil’s soybean output to 153 MMT.
Total world output of 388 MMT. That compares to 391 MMT last month and 358 MMT last year. Global carryout is expected to by 980k MT higher at 103.52 MMT.
A look at the NASS Grain Stocks showed 3.022 bbu of soybeans for December 1. That was below the 3.162 bbu expectation, and implies a Q1 usage of 1.458 bbu. Last season’s Q1 demand was 1.528 bbu – last year was 1.571 bbu. NASS had 1.477 bbu of the total still in farmer hands.
The weekly FAS report showed 717,415 MT of soybeans were sold for export through the week that ended 1/05. That was near even with both last week and the same week last year and was in-line with the expected range. Accumulated soy commitments were at 44.403 MMT (1.632 bbu) as of 1/05.
Jan 23 Soybeans are at $15.38 1/2, up 23 1/2 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $14.86 1/1, up 24 3/8 cents,
Mar 23 Soybeans are at $15.18, up 25 cents,
May 23 Soybeans are at $15.19, up 22 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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