CME’s preliminary OI data showed net increased contracts for both bean options and futures. In sum, 6k new options were opened yesterday led by Mar calls (+2k) and Mar puts (+1.5k). Futures also saw a net 3.1k new contracts opened, with +2.6k in Mar alone. Current quotes show the board is higher into the report day with 3 to 10 cent gains. Meal and oil are also higher with $3/ton and 57 point gains respectively. New crop prices ended Wednesday day 1 3/4 to 3 1/2 cents in the red, with old crop gaining 2 3/4 to 8 cents. March soybeans were up by 15 cents at the day’s high and settled above $15. Net new buying was noted, with preliminary open interest rising 3,127 contracts. Soybean meal prices settled the day $4.10 to $5.70 in the black. BO prices ended Wednesday with 47 to 74 point losses.
There were no deliveries against January soybeans or meal overnight, and only 5 against bean oil. The oldest long in meal moved up to 1/3/23 but the oldest long in beans is still holding out for delivery since buying on 12/22/22. Bean oil deliveries are up to current date.
Weekly soy export sales are estimated between 500k and 1.2m MT for the beans, 75k to 300k MT for the meal and below 12k MT for soy oil from the week that ended 1/05. New crop soybean bookings are estimated below 150k MT.
Going into the January 12 USDA reports the trade is looking to see between a 49.9 and 50.8 bpa final soy yield. The average of all estimates is for a 0.1 bpa increase to 50.3. Domestic soybean carryout is anticipated to be 13 mbu higher to 233 mbu. Global bean ending stocks are expected to be reported at 101.5 MMT on average – a 1.2 MMT reduction from December’s figure.
Soil moisture in Brazil’s Mato Grosso and MGDS has been improving, with USDA’s Crop Explorer maps showing insufficient areas shrinking and pockets of excessive soil moisture expanding. Southern Brazil remains dry. Argentina’s soil moisture has also been improving but from such detrimental levels that most of the country is still 0% to 20% insufficient to limited.
Brazil’s Safras and Mercado reported 43.7MMT (or ~36.5% of the expected output) of soybeans were sold by farmers through 1/06, compared to the average 41%. USDA’s Ag Attache raised their estimate for Brazil’s soybean output to 153 MMT.
Jan 23 Soybeans closed at $15.15, up 5 cents, currently up 8 3/4 cents
Nearby Cash was $14.61 ½ on Wednesday, up 8 1/8 cents,
Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $14.93, up 8 cents, currently up 9 3/4 cents
May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.96 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents, currently up 8 1/2 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
/A%20Palantir%20sign%20displayed%20on%20an%20office%20building%20by%20Poetra_RH%20via%20Shutterstock.jpg)