Arabica Coffee Falls Back on Heavy Rain in Brazil

March arabica coffee (KCH23) on Tuesday closed down -1.00 (-0.60%), and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH23) closed up +53 (+2.95%).

Coffee prices Tuesday settled mixed, with arabica falling to a 2-week low.  An easing of dry conditions in Brazil was bearish for arabica prices after Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's Minas Gerais region received 115.4 mm of rain last week, or 193% of the historical average.  Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop.

Weakness in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) is also bearish for arabica prices after the real Tuesday fell to a 1-1/2 month low against the dollar.  A weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil's coffee producers.

Robusta coffee on Tuesday moved higher on signs of tighter supplies after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories remained at a 4-1/2 year low of 6,426 lots.

Abundant global coffee supplies are bearish for prices.  ICE arabica coffee inventories have risen steadily since falling to a 23-year low of 382,695 bags on Nov 3 and posted a  5-1/2 month high last Friday of 814,686 bags.  In addition, increased coffee exports from Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, are weighing on robusta prices after the General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported last Wednesday that Vietnam's Jan-Dec coffee exports were up +10.1% y/y at 1.72 MMT.

On the negative side, Conab on Dec 15 raised its 2022 Brazil coffee production estimate to 50.9 mln bags from a 50.4 mln bag estimate in Sep, up +6.7% y/y.

Coffee prices also have support after the USDA, in its bi-annual report released on Dec 23, cut its global 2022/23 coffee production estimate by -1.3% to 172.8 mln bags from a June estimate of 175.0 mln bags.  In addition, the USDA cut its 2022/23 global coffee ending stocks estimate by -1.7% to 34.1 mln bags from a June estimate of 34.7 mln bags.  

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on Dec 2 that global coffee exports in Oct fell -1.9% y/y to 9.87 mln bags.  Also, the Colombia Coffee Growers Federation reported last Monday that Colombia's Nov coffee exports fell -25% y/y to 854,000 bags.  Colombia is the world's second-largest producer of arabica beans.  Meanwhile, Cecafe reported on Nov 17 that Brazil's Oct green coffee exports fell -2.9% y/y to 3.18 mln bags.

In a bullish factor, the USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) on Nov 22 cut its Brazil 2022/23 coffee production forecast by -2.6% to 62.6 mln bags from a prior estimate of 64.3 mln bags.  This year was supposed to be the higher-yielding year of Brazil's biennial coffee crop, but coffee output this year was slashed by drought.
 

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