Double Digit Weakness from Friday Wheat

Wheat prices are fading into the weekend with double digit losses so far. CBT SRW futures are down 2.13% to 2.55% on the board, with March overtaking the 8/18 $7.60 low. KC futures are giving back 2% to 2.7% through midday. Front month spring wheat futures are firmer, but still down by 0.5% to 1.7%. 

NOAA’s 7-day QPF shows precip for most of the continental US. Snow in the North will equate to the rainfall equivalent of 1/4” for MN and the Dakotas, while E. OK through TN will get rain. Most of the accumulation will be in Tennessee with 5” expected over the week, but winter wheat fields will also get 1” to 2 1/2” of reserves moisture in Oklahoma and N.E. Texas. As of 11/28, NASA’s GRACE had 30-70% (normal) wetness at the root-zone for all of Missouri and most of Eastern KS. OK and TX were mostly normal to 90% in reserve at the root-zone, but Western NE and KS are at 10% or worse. Data from https://nasagrace.unl.edu/ . 

Canada’s 22/23 wheat crop is 33.824 MMT according to the StatsCan report. That is down ~900k MT from their September figure and matched the low end of pre-report estimates. In 21/22 Canada produced 22.3 MMT of wheat, hindered by drought, and in 20/21 they harvested 35.44 MMT. Spring wheat specifically was reported at 25.68 MMT, compared to 26.1 MTM previously and 25.9 MMT expected. 

FranceAgriMer reported 99% of their 23/24 wheat crop was planted, including 89% of expected durum ground. The conditions were steady at 98% good / very good. 

Importers in Thailand reportedly booked 123k MT of feed wheat from Australia. Algeria is believed to have purchased 450k MT of optional origin milling wheat after tendering for 500k MT. Reports on the wire show Taiwan purchased 42,750 MT of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. 

Dec 22 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.43 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents,

Mar 23 CBOT Wheat  is at $7.64, down 19 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $6.93 1/2, down 19 1/8 cents,

Dec 22 KCBT Wheat  is at $8.78, down 25 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $8.35 3/8, down 20 1/4 cents,

Dec 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $9.43, down 11 1/2 cents,