Wheat Futures Gain 50 Cents on Russian Developments

The initial reaction from Russia announcing their intent to no longer guarantee safe passage for Ukraine’s grain exports had wheat futures gap higher out of the weekend. higher. Futures faded some through midday to close that gap, completing the objective on a weekly chart but did not get to Friday’s high. Afternoon action resumed the rally with CBT futures closing 38 3/4 to 53 cents higher in the front months. Dec SRW held under the $9/bu mark at the highs. KC futures settled the first trading day of the week with 40 1/2 to 53 3/4 cent front month gains. MPLS wheats rallied 28 1/4 to 36 1/4 cents. 

Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS had 87% of the 23/24 winter wheat crop planted. That was up 8% points through the week and is 2% points ahead of the average pace. In KS, 87% of the winter wheat was in the ground compared to 88% on average. Emergence reached 62% as of 10/30, compared to 66% on average. That was enough for the first preliminary ratings – NASS scored the crop 17% VP, 18% P, 37% A, 23% G, 5% E for a Brugler500 conversion of 281. Last year’s rating was 322 on the Brugler500. 

Weekly USDA data had 137,082 MT of wheat shipments in the Inspections data. That was up from 133k MT last week and above the 131k MT from the same week last year. HRS was the top variety with 61.8k MT of the total, followed by 48k MT of HRW. The weekly data had the MYTD total at 9.646 MMT as of 10/27, compared to 9.668 MMT during the same period last year. 

IKAR estimated the Russian 22/23 wheat crop at 101 MMT with 50 MMT of exportable supply.

Buenos Aries Grains Exchange left their Argentine wheat forecast for 22/23 wheat at 15.2 MMT. 

Dec 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.82 1/4, up 53 cents,

Mar 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.99 1/4, up 50 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $8.15, up 52 1/4 cents,

Dec 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $9.78 3/4, up 53 3/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $9.37 1/1, up 53 5/8 cents,

Dec 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.81 1/4, up 36 1/4 cents,