The initial reaction from Russia announcing their intent to no longer guarantee safe passage for Ukraine’s grain exports shot the wheat market 50 cents higher. Futures worked to over $9 SRW in the deferred contracts, with Dec getting up to $8.93 at the high. Currently prices are working 19 to 30 cents higher in Chicago, down 30 cents from their highs after the UN and Turkey approved 16 vessels to continue on their routes and inspections on some of those held up in Turkey. KC HRW is currently trading 13 3/4 top 30 cents higher. Spring wheat prices are up by 11 to 16 cents for midday in the front month futures.
Weekly USDA data had 137,082 MT of wheat shipments in the Inspections data. That was up from 133k MT last week and above the 131k MT from the same week last year. HRS was the top variety with 61.8k MT of the total, followed by 48k MT of HRW. The weekly data had the MYTD total at 9.646 MMT as of 10/27, compared to 9.668 MMT during the same period last year.
IKAR estimated the Russian 22/23 wheat crop at 101 MMT with 50 MMT of exportable supply.
Buenos Aries Grains Exchange left their Argentine wheat forecast for 22/23 wheat at 15.2 MMT.
Dec 22 CBOT Wheat is at $8.60 1/4, up 31 cents,
Mar 23 CBOT Wheat is at $8.78 1/4, up 29 1/4 cents,
Cash SRW Wheat is at $7.93, up 30 1/4 cents,
Dec 22 KCBT Wheat is at $9.54 1/4, up 29 1/4 cents,
Cash HRW Wheat is at $9.12 1/2, up 29 1/4 cents,
Dec 22 MGEX Wheat is at $9.59, up 14 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
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