Soy Market Fades into Weekend

Front month soybean futures were down 11 1/2 to 12 3/4 cents on the last trading day of the week. November beans got up to $14.10 at the high, but closed near the day’s low. For the week, November was a net 1.23% higher and printed a 48 1/2 cent range. October meal and soy oil expired on Friday priced $418.50/ton and 69.57 cents/lb respectively. The other front month meal futures closed mixed within 10c of UNCH while BO futures dropped +100 points past the October contract. The week’s average B100 cash price was $6.65 in MN, up by 27 cents/gal. 

The weekly CoT report had sell pressure from spec traders via 8k contracts of closed longs and 3.8k new shorts through the week of 10/11. That reduced the managed money net long to a 44-wk low of 65,738 contracts. Commercial soybean traders were adding hedges, with 27.4k new longs and 16.4k new shorts. The commercial net short was reduced to 95,875 contracts as of the 10/11 settle – that is their weakest net short since Feb 2020. On the product side, CFTC showed long liquidation, reducing the managed money net long in meal by 9.3k contracts to 70.4k and their net long in BO by 1,770 to 60,984 contracts. 

Survey respondents expect NOPA members processed 161.3 mbu in September to start the 22/23 season. The full range of estimates is from 152 – 170.4 mbu. Soybean oil stocks are expected at 1.522b lbs, which would be down from 2.7% from August. 

The USDA announced large soy bookings this morning, with China buying 392k MT of soybeans and private exporters having sold 198k MT of soybeans to unknown. USDA also confirmed a 230k MT soymeal sale to the Philippines. 

Weekly FAS data had soybean bookings as 724k MT for the week that ended 10/6. That was down 7% on the week and was just 26% of the same week last year. Soybean shipments were a MY high of 888k MT taking the accumulated total to 2.72 MMT. Total soybean commitments were 28.2 MMT, down by 3% from the same week last year. In the products, USDA finished out the 21/22 meal season with weekly total shipments of 11.7 MMT. Meal sales on the books then began the 22/23 season with 2.98 MMT. BO finished weekly reporting with 678,426 MT for the 21/22 season. CMY bookings are at 19,798 MT. 

USDA’s Ag Attache had Argentina’s ‘soy dollar’ expanding September soybean export sales to the largest volume in recent years at 16 MMT. That makes up ~70% of their updated full year forecast, which is still below 17/18 and 18/19’s pace. 

Indonesia shipped 4.04 MMT of palm oil in August according to Intertek. That was up from 2.41 MMT in July, mostly to India and China. Malaysia is maintaining an 8% palm oil export tax at least through November. The policy had been in place since Jan 2021. 

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.83 3/4, down 12 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $13.35 7/8, down 11 1/2 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.92 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.01, down 12 3/4 cents,