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Silver Dec '17 (SIZ17)

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Silver Futures Market News and Commentary

Gold and Silver Market News and Commentary

Apr Comex gold (GCJ19) on Friday closed up +8.2 (+0.62%) and March silver (SIH19) closed up +0.215 (+1.38%). Precious metals moved higher Friday with Apr gold at a 2-week high on signs of weak price pressures in China that may prompt China's central bank (PBOC) to expand stimulus measures. China Jan CPI rose +1.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.9% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in a year, and China Jan PPI rose +0.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 2-1/4 years. Also, gold was supported by weaker than expected U.S. economic data that was dovish for Fed policy after Jan manufacturing production fell -0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of unchanged and the biggest decline in 8 months. Metals prices fell back from their best levels after the S&P 500 climbed to a 2-1/4 month high, which curbs safe-haven demand for precious metals. Apr gold fell to a 2-week low on Thursday and Mar silver slipped to a 2-1/2 week low as political risks in the U.S. eased after lawmakers passed a compromise spending bill that averted a government shutdown on Friday night. Fund buying of gold is a bullish factor as global geopolitical concerns and stock market volatility have fueled demand for gold as a store of wealth after long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 5-3/4 year high on Jan 31.Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) expansive Bank of Japan and European Central Bank monetary policies, although the ECB ended its quantitative easing program in Dec 2018, (2) an easier monetary policy by China's central bank, which cut the bank required reserve requirement ratio by 100 bp on Jan 4, and (3) fund buying of gold as global geopolitical concerns and stock market volatility have fueled demand for gold as a store of wealth as long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 5-3/4 year high. Bearish factors include (1) strength in the dollar as the dollar index recently rallied to a 1-1/2 year high, (2) tighter dollar liquidity as the Fed draws down its balance sheet, (3) slack inflation pressures after the Jan ISM prices-paid sub-index fell to a 3-year low of 49.6 and after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate recently fell to a 1-1/2 year low, which reduces demand for gold as an inflation hedge, and (4) the slower Chinese economy and US/Chinese trade tensions that dampen Chinese demand for industrial metals.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Silver 5,000-oz
Contract Size
5,000 troy ounces
Tick Size
$0.005 per troy ounce ($25.00 per contract) (Settlement $0.001)
Trading Hours
7:25a.m. to 12:25p.m. (Globex 5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri)) CST
Exchange
COMEX
Point Value
$5,000
Margin/Maintenance
$3,960/3,600
First Notice Date
11/30/17
Expiration Date
12/27/17 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Silver Dec '17
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jan 22, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
64,325 (+861)
129,257 (-5,897)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
83,303 (-2,656)
35,147 (+1,363)
Producers - Long / Short
7,135 (-5)
48,788 (-3,138)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
51,729 (+518)
75,008 (-3,107)
Managed Money - Long / Short
62,848 (-2,706)
27,675 (+1,352)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
20,455 (+50)
7,472 (+11)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
15.555 +6.84%
on 12/12/17
17.080 -2.70%
on 11/28/17
-0.401 (-2.36%)
since 11/27/17
3-Month
15.555 +6.84%
on 12/12/17
17.495 -5.01%
on 10/16/17
-0.208 (-1.24%)
since 09/27/17
52-Week
15.245 +9.01%
on 07/10/17
18.890 -12.02%
on 04/17/17
+0.407 (+2.51%)
since 12/27/16

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 16.653
1st Resistance Point 16.636
Last Price 16.619s
1st Support Level 16.591
2nd Support Level 16.563

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52-Week High 18.890
Fibonacci 61.8% 17.498
Fibonacci 50% 17.067
Fibonacci 38.2% 16.637
Last Price 16.619s
52-Week Low 15.245

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InsideFutures Commentary

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