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Silver Dec '17 (SIZ17)

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Silver Futures Market News and Commentary

Precious Metals Decline on Dollar Strength and FOMC Minutes

Apr Comex gold (GCJ19) on Thursday closed down -20.1 (-1.59%) and March silver (SIH19) closed down -0.376 (-2.32%). Precious metals sold-off Thursday on dollar strength along with negative carry-over from Wednesday afternoon's minutes of the Jan 29-30 FOMC meeting, which were released after the metals markets closed. The minutes were not as dovish as expected and stated there could be a shift back to hawkish policy when they said, "Many participants observed that if uncertainty abated, the Committee would need to reassess the characterization of monetary policy as 'patient' and might then use different statement language." Silver prices were also under pressure Thursday on signs of weakness in global manufacturing activity, which is negative for industrial metals demand. The Eurozone Feb Markit manufacturing PMI fell -1.3 to a 5-1/2 year low of 49.2, and the Japan Feb Nikkei manufacturing PMI fell -1.8 to a 2-1/2 year low of 48.5. In addition, U.S. economic concerns weighed on silver prices after the Feb Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey fell -21.1 to a 2-3/4 year low of -4.1, and Jan existing home sales fell -1.2% to a 3-year low 4.94 million. Apr gold climbed to a 10-month high Wednesday and Mar silver posted a 2-week high after the dollar index fell to a 2-week low and after inflation expectations rose. Increased inflation expectations boost demand for gold as an inflation hedge after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate Thursday rose to a 2-1/2 month high of 1.91%, up by +23 bp from the early-Jan 1-3/4 year low of 1.68%. Fund buying of precious metals is a bullish factor as global geopolitical concerns and stock market volatility have fueled demand for gold as a store of wealth after long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 5-3/4 year high on Jan 31. Also, fund demand for silver has increased after long silver positions in ETFs rose to a 5-week high on Wednesday.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Silver 5,000-oz
Contract Size
5,000 troy ounces
Tick Size
$0.005 per troy ounce ($25.00 per contract) (Settlement $0.001)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 7:25a.m. - 12:25p.m.) (Settles 12:25p.m.) CST
Exchange
COMEX
Point Value
$5,000
Margin/Maintenance
$3,960/3,600
First Notice Date
11/30/17
Expiration Date
12/27/17 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Silver Dec '17
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jan 29, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
65,398 (+1,073)
137,860 (+8,603)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
86,074 (+2,771)
31,791 (-3,356)
Producers - Long / Short
7,438 (+303)
52,321 (+3,533)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
51,482 (-247)
79,061 (+4,053)
Managed Money - Long / Short
66,078 (+3,230)
26,159 (-1,516)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
19,996 (-459)
5,632 (-1,840)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
15.555 +6.84%
on 12/12/17
17.080 -2.70%
on 11/28/17
-0.401 (-2.36%)
since 11/27/17
3-Month
15.555 +6.84%
on 12/12/17
17.495 -5.01%
on 10/16/17
-0.208 (-1.24%)
since 09/27/17
52-Week
15.245 +9.01%
on 07/10/17
18.890 -12.02%
on 04/17/17
+0.407 (+2.51%)
since 12/27/16

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 16.653
1st Resistance Point 16.636
Last Price 16.619s
1st Support Level 16.591
2nd Support Level 16.563

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52-Week High 18.890
Fibonacci 61.8% 17.498
Fibonacci 50% 17.067
Fibonacci 38.2% 16.637
Last Price 16.619s
52-Week Low 15.245

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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