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Australian Dollar Cash (A6Y00)

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Australian Dollar Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Index Falls to a 1-Week Low on EUR/USD Strength and Weak US Durable Goods Orders

The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday fell by -0.27 (-0.28%) to a 1-week low. June euro-fx futures (E6M9) closed up +23 (+0.20%) at a 1-week high and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.0029 (+0.26%) to a 1-week high. June yen futures (J6M9) closed up +9 (+0.10%) at a 1-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) fell -0.25 (-0.23%) to a 1-week low. The dollar index moved lower Friday on strength in EUR/USD and on weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. EUR/USD rose to a 1-week high Friday after political risks in Italy eased when Italian Deputy Prime Minister Salvini said he would be willing to talk to French and German leaders to try to secure a higher national debt ratio. The dollar extended its losses Friday morning after the U.S. Apr durable goods orders report of -2.1% and unchanged ex-transportation was slightly weaker than expectations of -2.0% and +0.1% ex-transportation. Also, USD/JPY fell to a 1-week low on the stronger-than-expected Japan Apr national CPI (ex fresh food & energy) report of +0.6% y/y, the largest increase in 2-3/4 years. Finally, GBP/USD recovered slightly from Thursday's 4-1/2 month low on short covering after UK Prime Minister May said she will step down as Conservative Party leader on June 7 with an election to choose her replacement beginning on June 10. Big Picture Dollar Factors: Bullish factors for the dollar index include (1) the Fed's balance sheet drawdown program through September and the Fed-dot forecast for one more rate hike in 2020 vs near-zero policy rates by the ECB and BOJ, (2) relative strength in the U.S. economy, and (3) the repatriation of U.S. corporate overseas cash under the 2018 tax law. Bearish factors include (1) the decline in the 10-year T-note yield to a 1-1/2 year low of 2.290%, which weakens the dollar's interest rate differentials, (2) market expectations for at least two Fed rate cuts through 2020, (3) trade tensions and Washington political uncertainty, and (4) the wide U.S. budget and current account deficits. Bearish factors for EUR/USD include (1) the ECB's promise to leave interest rates unchanged at least through end-2019, (2) weak Eurozone economic growth, (3) the slump in the 10-year bund yield to a 2-1/2 year low of -0.132%, which undercuts the euro's interest rate differentials, and (4) Brexit risks.
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
0.68640 +1.00%
on 05/17/19
0.70682 -1.91%
on 04/30/19
-0.01030 (-1.46%)
since 04/26/19
3-Month
0.68640 +1.00%
on 05/17/19
0.72053 -3.78%
on 04/17/19
-0.02002 (-2.81%)
since 02/27/19
52-Week
0.66377 +4.45%
on 01/03/19
0.76763 -9.68%
on 06/06/18
-0.06111 (-8.10%)
since 05/25/18

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The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday fell by -0.182 (-0.19%). June euro-fx futures (E6M9) closed up +19 (+0.17%) and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.0031 (+0.28). June yen futures (J6M9) closed up +64 (+0.71%)...

Midday Market Minute

There was tremendous volatility in the currencies today due to dismal PMI data from both Europe and the U.S.

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 0.69672
1st Resistance Point 0.69467
Last Price 0.69333
1st Support Level 0.68935
2nd Support Level 0.68608

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52-Week High 0.76763
Fibonacci 61.8% 0.72796
Fibonacci 50% 0.71570
Fibonacci 38.2% 0.70344
Last Price 0.69333
52-Week Low 0.66377

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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