Soy Weakness Sticks Around for Tuesday

Yesterday’s soybean selloff was predominantly long liquidation in September futures and net new selling in the rest. Overall open interest crept up 350 contracts. Yesterday, September soybeans dropped a sharp 4.4% - or 70.5c per bushel. That shrank the Sep/Nov inverse by 47 cents, but is still 97c. The other front months were also 1.3% to 1.6% lower to start the week. Red Nov beans ended the day at $13.62 after a 19 1/4 cent loss. Currently soybean prices are trading with another double digit loss of ~20-25 cents to start the Tuesday day session. 

Soymeal futures were up 30 cents in the Sep contract while later months were down $0.50 to $1.40/ton. BO futures were also up 16 points in the Sep contract, though down 27 to 44 points in the other nearbys. 

Crop Progress data from NASS showed 91% of soybeans had set pods through week 35. That compares to 92% on average. The weekly update also showed 4% of the crop had begun dropping leaves, trailing the 5-yr average pace by 3% points. National conditions converted to a 351 on the Brugler500 Index, which was 1 point higher than last week. Traders had been looking for a 1 point drop in the % of the crop rated good/ex. That G/E rating was 57%, UNCH from last week. Nebraska conditions declined 13 points on the Brugler500 this week, to 312. Beans in IA converted to a 364 on the Brugler500 Index.  

ABIOVE estimated that 2022/23 Brazilian soybean production would hit 151 MMT (5.548 billion bushels!) on 42 million planted hectares. 

Production estimates from StatsCan show the canola crop should reach 19.499 MMT, up from 13.8 MMT last year (revised up from their prior 12.6 MMT figure). The trade was looking for StatsCan to report 19.6 MMT.  There were rumors that China purchase 1 MMT of Canadian canola last week. 

Sep 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.34 3/4, down 70 1/2 cents, currently down 27 3/4 cents

Nearby Cash   was $14.69 3/8 on Monday, down 23 5/8 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.37 3/4, down 23 1/2 cents, currently down 22 1/2 cents

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.43, down 22 1/2 cents, currently down 23 cents

New Crop Cash   was $13.86 ½ on Monday, down 23 1/4 cents,