Soybeans Weaker on Sunday Overnight

Soybean futures are 36 to 42 ½ cents lower following weaker Sunday night trade. They had a bit of a fake out on Friday post USDA report, with contracts plunging 40+ cents intraday but closing 2 to 5 ¾ cents higher. Preliminary open interest suggests net new buying, up 3,674 contracts. The nearby contracts were the exception with August expiring and September up 14 ¾ cents. Meal was up $8.20/ton on the day, with bean oil 23 points higher in September. 

NASS’s Crop Production report bumped up the average soybean yield 0.4 bpa from July’s number. That helped production rise to 4.531 bbu, a 26 mbu rise from the official July number. The gain was limited by a 300,000 acre cut in the multiplier (harvested acres). New crop stocks were up 15 mbu to 245 mbu in part on larger production in larger carryover from 21/22. Those old crop stocks were up 10 mbu, as expected to 225 mbu. That came via a 10 mbu cut to exports.

USDA left Brazil and Argentine production numbers unch at 126 MMT and 44 MMT respectively. The increase to the US assisted in lifting the world carryout estimate by 1 MMT for old crop (89.73 MMT) and 1.8 MMT for new crop at 101.41 MMT. 

Ahead of the NOPA report later this morning, traders estimate 171.53 mbu of soybeans were crushed during July among members. Soy oil stocks are seen at 1.713 billion lbs.

Commitment of Traders data showed managed money adding 2,038 contracts to their net long in soybean futures and options last week. They took that position to 101,509 contracts as of 8/9.

Aug 22 Soybeans  closed at $16.69 1/4, down 40 1/4 cents, they expired

Nearby Cash   was $14.98 ½ on Friday, up 3 5/8 cents,

Sep 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.35, up 14 3/4 cents, they are down 36 ½ cents this morning

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.54 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents, they are 42 ½ cents this morning

New Crop Cash   was $14.02 ¼ on Friday, up 5 7/8 cents,