Stock Index Futures Mixed With Focus on Trump’s SOTU Address and U.S. Economic Data

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.04%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are up +0.21% this morning as sentiment remains cautious following yesterday’s selloff on Wall Street triggered by concerns over the disruptive impact of AI.

Investors are awaiting U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, a new round of U.S. economic data, and comments from Federal Reserve officials.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the red. International Business Machines (IBM) plunged over -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Dow after AI startup Anthropic said its Claude Code tool could be deployed to modernize a programming language used on IBM systems. Also, shares of big banks and other financial services firms slumped after a report from Citrini Research ignited fresh concerns about the economic fallout from AI, with Capital One Financial (COF) sliding more than -8% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) dropping over -4%. In addition, software stocks sank, with Datadog (DDOG) tumbling more than -11% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Atlassian (TEAM) plunging over -9%. On the bullish side, PayPal Holdings (PYPL) climbed more than +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that the company was attracting takeover interest from potential buyers.

“The AI disruption story probably hasn’t run its course yet,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. factory orders fell -0.7% m/m in December, weaker than expectations of -0.4% m/m.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that his decision on whether to back an interest rate cut at the central bank’s March meeting will depend on upcoming labor-market data. “If these data support the idea of an improvement in the labor market in January that continued in February, along with additional progress toward 2% inflation, that could result in my outlook turning a bit more positive and my view of appropriate monetary policy may tilt toward a pause at our upcoming meeting,” Waller said.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.9% probability of no rate change and a 4.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs took effect on Tuesday. An official directive has not yet been issued to implement the 15% levies Trump threatened over the weekend. The White House is preparing a formal order to raise the global tariff rate to 15%, according to an administration official.

Today, market participants will closely watch President Trump’s annual State of the Union address for signals on trade and other policy priorities ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 87.4, compared to last month’s figure of 84.5.

The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. will also be reported today. Economists expect the December figure to ease to +1.3% y/y from +1.4% y/y in November.

The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at -8 in February, compared to the previous value of -6.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists anticipate that the final December figure will be unrevised at +0.2% m/m.

In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, along with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.

On the earnings front, home improvement chain Home Depot (HD), as well as notable companies like Constellation Energy (CEG), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Workday (WDAY), and HP Inc. (HPQ), are slated to release their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.033%, up +0.17%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.17% this morning as trade uncertainty and AI jitters continue to weigh on sentiment. Bank stocks led the declines on Tuesday, mirroring yesterday’s selloff in their U.S. peers amid renewed concerns that AI could disrupt traditional business models. Healthcare and luxury stocks also fell. Limiting losses, utility and automobile stocks advanced. Data released on Tuesday showed that France’s manufacturing business climate indicator slipped in February but remained above its long-term average of 100. “Despite the first signs of an industrial recovery in Europe, supported in particular by the German stimulus plan, the French economy doesn’t seem to be accelerating, with domestic demand showing signs of fatigue,” said Charlotte de Montpellier at ING. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s new 10% global tariffs took effect on Tuesday, adding to uncertainty surrounding trade deals reached last year. The European Union decided to halt the ratification process of its trade deal with the U.S., saying it would seek additional details from the Trump administration. President Trump cautioned that countries attempting to “play games” with existing trade agreements could be hit with higher duties. In corporate news, Edenred (EDEN.FP) climbed over +7% after the French vouchers and benefit cards provider reported better-than-expected 2025 core earnings.

France’s Business Survey was released today.

The French February Business Survey came in at 102, weaker than expectations of 104.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.87%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.87%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as investors returned from a nine-day Lunar New Year holiday, with optimism over lower U.S. tariffs and domestic technological advances boosting sentiment. Technology stocks were among the biggest gainers on Tuesday. Humanoid robots showcasing their capabilities at the nation’s annual Spring Festival gala bolstered confidence in China’s technological progress. Also, export-oriented stocks climbed as investors cheered the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling to strike down President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. While President Trump later announced plans for a 15% global tariff, Morgan Stanley estimates that the average tariffs on goods from China will fall to 24% from 32%. China on Tuesday called on the U.S. to scrap its “unilateral tariffs,” while also signaling its willingness to hold another round of trade talks with the world’s largest economy. At the same time, shares of film and entertainment companies tumbled after Citigroup said box office sales during the holiday were weaker than expected. Overall, travel and spending data from the holiday period have so far delivered mixed signals on consumption. China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Tuesday, after the country’s central bank lowered rates on its structural monetary policy tools in January to support growth. The one-year loan prime rate remained at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR was left unchanged at 3.5%, according to the People’s Bank of China.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today as trading resumed after a long weekend. Chip stocks rallied on Tuesday on expectations of additional investment in AI infrastructure after Reuters reported last week that Nvidia was close to finalizing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI. Naoki Fujiwara, a senior fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management, said, “Although it is still speculation, investors reacted to the news about Nvidia and OpenAI.” Mining, industrial, and healthcare stocks also advanced. At the same time, software stocks slumped, tracking overnight losses in their U.S. peers amid renewed AI jitters. Defense and heavy machinery stocks also fell after China placed 40 Japanese entities on export control and monitoring lists amid heightened tensions between Beijing and Tokyo. Meanwhile, Japanese officials said on Tuesday that Japan could face higher tariffs if the U.S. proceeds with a new regime of import duties, but Tokyo has asked that its treatment be as favorable as the deal reached by the two sides last year. In other news, Reuters reported on Tuesday that Japan’s Ministry of Finance is weighing changes to the structure of its liquidity-enhancement auctions for government bonds, a step that could help alleviate supply pressures at the super-long end of the market. Investor attention this week is on a series of Japan’s economic data releases, including Tokyo core CPI, industrial production, and retail sales, which may offer clues about the Bank of Japan’s policy trajectory. Investors will also focus on a speech from BOJ policy board member Hajime Takata, looking for clues about the timing of the next interest-rate hike. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +15.10% to 30.80.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Keysight Technologies (KEYS) surged over +16% in pre-market trading after the electronics test equipment manufacturer posted upbeat FQ1 results and provided strong FQ2 guidance.

Home Depot (HD) rose more than +3% in pre-market trading after the home-improvement retailer reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results.

Qualcomm (QCOM) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after Wells Fargo and Loop Capital upgraded the stock.

Vir Biotechnology (VIR) jumped over +65% in pre-market trading after announcing it had entered into a licensing agreement with Japan’s Astellas Pharma to develop its prostate cancer treatment.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) slid over -7% in pre-market trading after the telemedicine provider issued below-consensus Q1 net revenue guidance and revealed in an annual filing that it is subject to a new investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - February 24th

The Home Depot (HD), Constellation Energy (CEG), EOG Resources (EOG), Realty Income (O), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), NRG Energy (NRG), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Workday (WDAY), First Solar (FSLR), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Amer Sports (AS), CoStar Group (CSGP), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), HP Inc. (HPQ), Sun Communities (SUI), BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO), Globus Medical (GMED), Elanco Animal Health (ELAN), Westlake (WLK), GoDaddy (GDDY), SPX Technologies (SPXC), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), Leonardo DRS (DRS), Tempus AI (TEM), Henry Schein (HSIC), Range Resources (RRC), The Mosaic Company (MOS), Vaxcyte (PCVX), Armstrong World Industries (AWI), Cytokinetics (CYTK), CAVA Group (CAVA), Repligen (RGEN), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Matador Resources Company (MTDR), Life Time Group Holdings (LTH), Cipher Mining (CIFR), Archrock (AROC), Option Care Health (OPCH), Everus Construction Group (ECG), DigitalOcean Holdings (DOCN), Resideo Technologies (REZI), Novanta (NOVT), Matson (MATX), Sotera Health Company (SHC), Merit Medical Systems (MMSI), ExlService Holdings (EXLS), TransMedics Group (TMDX), Tanger (SKT), Trex Company (TREX), Gulfport Energy (GPOR), Corcept Therapeutics (CORT), Zeta Global Holdings (ZETA), Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI), Interparfums (IPAR), CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings (CCC), Lucid Group (LCID), Verra Mobility (VRRM), Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN), Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS), CECO Environmental (CECO), Xometry (XMTR), Astronics (ATRO), Global Business Travel Group (GBTG), Brightstar Lottery (BRSL), The Boston Beer Company (SAM), Talos Energy (TALO), Slide Insurance Holdings (SLDE), Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), Huron Consulting Group (HURN), Alphatec Holdings (ATEC), LTC Properties (LTC), Interface (TILE), Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS), UFP Technologies (UFPT), Marqeta (MQ), Axogen (AXGN), Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS), Revolve Group (RVLV), Albany International (AIN), Xenia Hotels & Resorts (XHR), Enviri (NVRI), Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY), PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT), Sila Realty Trust (SILA), AdaptHealth (AHCO), Flywire (FLYW), ProAssurance (PRA), Global Industrial Company (GIC), Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN), Camping World Holdings (CWH), eXp World Holdings (EXPI), Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA), Clarivate (CLVT), International General Insurance Holdings (IGIC).