Wheat Rallies Out Of Weekend

A mostly unexpected shakeup from the Black Sea has the wheat market bouncing +20 cents into the Monday market. Front month wheat prices faded on Friday going into the weekend at levels not seen since Feb. Chicago futures closed with 4% to 5.8% losses. KC futures fell 3.8% to 4.7% in the front months. Spring wheat prices were down 34 3/4 to 41 1/2 cents on the day. omestic wheat markets are trading +30 cents in the red across both markets. For SRW that has the board 4.28% to 5% in the red. HRW futures are down 3.9% lower to 4.8% lower. MPLS wheats are down 2.8% to 3.75%. 

CFTC reported CBT SRW wheat spec traders as 6,816 contracts net short as of 7/19. That was a net 372 contracts stronger net short as the new sellers offset the new spec buyers on a 7.1k contract increased OI. For KC wheat, CFTC had the funds at 11,868 contracts net long. That was down 4.5k wk/wk via net new selling. MPLS spec traders were down to just 982 contracts net long as of 7/19’s settle. That was via 5.3k longs vs 4.4k spec shorts. 

The IGC lifted their wheat outlook by 1 MMT from June to 770 MMT. Last year’s production was 781. Carryout was also down by 1 MMT to 272, and now 10 MMT below 21/22. 

Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported 22/23 wheat planting reached 97% complete on 6.1m HA. 

An agreement between Russia, the Ukraine, Turkey and The United Nations was signed in Istanbul on Friday. It was agreed that Russia would help facilitate safe grain and food exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea. Within 24 hours of the signing, two Russian cruise missiles struck the harbor of Port Odessa. The agreement did not include a Cease Fire, but the attack was still a shock to the parties involved and weakened both Russia’s and the agreement’s credibility. 

Sep 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.59, down 47 1/4 cents, currently up 25 1/2 cents

Dec 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.77 1/2, down 44 1/4 cents, currently up 25 3/4 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.99 1/1, down 47 1/4 cents,

Sep 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.20 1/4, down 41 cents, currently up 26 1/4 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.68 1/4, down 41 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.71, down 41 1/2 cents, currently up 25 cents