Soybean Prices Working Higher

Some relief ahead of the weekend has the soybean market back up by 10 3/4 to 25 cents. July is up the most, with option expiration at the close – the 1620 seems to be the most likely pin play. Meal and soy oil futures are also recovering with $5.70 to $8/ton and 154 to 219 point gains respectively. USDA reported the average cash B100 prices were $6.97/gal in IA during the week of 6/24 – down 57 c/gal wk/wk. 

Weekly old crop soybean export sales were marked at 29,348 MT from the FAS data. That was a MY low, but matched the range of estimates. USDA reported 494,055 MT were shipped during the week. That was down 30% from last week but was double the same week last season. The 51.2 MMT shipped MYTD makes up 87% of USDA’s forecast. For new crop, the weekly report had 264,978 MT sold. That was also in-line with estimates and set the forward book at 13.4 MMT. 

For the products, USDA reported soymeal bookings were a net 8,248 MT of cancelations for 21/22 delivery and a net 42,325 MT of new sales for 22/23 delivery. The trade was looking for 100-300k MT of 21/22 soymeal sales going into the report. BO bookings were 1,376 MT during the week that ended 6/16. That was near the low end of the expected range. MYTD exports for meal were 8.67 MMT through 6/16 and 602,772 MT for soybean oil. 

Updated estimates from the International Grains Council show a 4 MMT increase to 22/23 global production – now at 387 MMT. Soybean ending stocks grew by 4 MMT as well from their last month estimate to now 13 MMT above 21/22. 

Jul 22 Soybeans  are at $16.17 3/4, up 24 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $15.61 7/8, up 21 3/8 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans  are at $15.27 1/2, up 20 1/4 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  are at $14.29 3/4, up 14 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash   is at $13.79 5/8, up 14 1/8 cents,