Hogs Sold Off into Hogs and Pigs Data

Lean hogs extended their pre report decline through the afternoon, and went home $0.02 to $1.77 weaker. The April and May contracts were the weakest on Wednesday. The National Average Base Hog price for the PM report was $104.93, a $1 higher. CME’s Lean Hog Index was $103.56 on 3/28, up by 63 cents.  

Hogs and Pigs data showed the March 1 inventory was 72.209m head. That was down 2.33% yr/yr, and lighter than expected. All weight classes for market hogs were down from 2021, though the heavier weights were down 4.5% in the 120-179# and 4.8% lower in the 180# and up group. Total market hogs were down by 2.4%, compared to the anticipated 1% drop. Breeding inventory was also down by 2.9% at 6.098 million head. The Dec-Feb pig crop was 31.7m head, which was down by 1% yr/yr compared to the the expected 1.3% increase. Farrowing intentions for Mar-May are 2.988m head, which would be up from 2.901 this quarter but down from 3.034m head last year. The trade was looking to see 0.6% fewer Jun-Aug intentions, though NASS reported a 1.3% smaller reduction. 

Pork cutout contracts ended the trade day 10 to 72 cents weaker, save for a 37 cent gain in the June. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Wednesday PM was $103.72, down by 22 cents. USDA estimates federally inspected hog slaughter at 1.435 million head for the week through Wednesday. That is up 10k from last week, but down 31k yr/yr.  

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $104.525, down $1.525,

May 22 Hogs  closed at $117.000, down $1.775

Apr 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $109.275, down $0.725,