Lean Hogs Fade into Close

Front month lean hog futures set new LoC highs on Monday, but faded to end the session mixed. The May contract stayed up by $1.40 by the bell, though the deferred months closed within 40 cents of UNCH. The National Average Base Hog price for Monday was $105.89, down by $2.95. The 3/24 CME Lean Hog Index was 75 cents higher to $102.25. 

Going into the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, traders expect NASS to show 73.046m head inventory as of March 1st.  Barring any revisions to previous data, that would be 1.2% below last year. The breeding herd is estimated 0.1% above last year on average. The average estimate for farrowing intentions is initially a 0.3% lighter March-May, to a 0.6% increase yr/yr into June-Aug. Dec-Feb farrowings are expected to be reported 0.4% above 2020/21. 

Pork futures went home mostly higher, with a 2 cent dip in the April contract and 37 to 95 cent gains in the other front months. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was quoted at $107.41 in the PM report, down ys. $2.49 on weaker ham primals. USDA estimates FI hog slaughter at 476k head for Monday. That is 8,000 head more than last week, but still down by 7k head from the same week last year. 

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $107.575, up $0.100,

May 22 Hogs  closed at $119.300, up $1.400

Apr 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $111.700, down $0.025,