May SRW Locked Higher while Other Wheats Off Highs

The May SRW contract remains locked limit higher through midday, following an overnight jump to $12.94/bu. The CME set 85 cents as the new daily limit, with expanded limits reaching $1.30/bu per day. The other SRW contracts have faded from their highs, but are still 24 1/4 to 27 1/4 cents in the black. HRW has also faded from their limit gains by midday, but prices are still up 15 3/4 to 34 1/2 cents. Spring wheat is trading 14 3/4 to 43 cents in the black at midday. 

China released 526,254 MT of wheat from state reserves in an auction on Monday – selling the full offer for 3,054 yuan/MT (~ $483.23/MT). 

USDA reported 343,463 MT of wheat was exported during the week that ended 3/3. That was down from 429,984 MT last week and was under the same week last year by 179k MT. The week’s export was broken down 50% HRW, 25% white, 20% HRS and just 16k MT of SRW. The weekly updated also had 21/22 accumulated wheat exports at 15.852 MMT, compared to 18.67 MMT at the same point last season. 

Pre-WASDE report estimates are expecting a 16.7 mbu stocks cut for the U.S. on average – with many private analysts citing the Russia/Ukraine war as justification for increased spot exports from the U.S. For world wheat stocks, the trade is looking for 277.5 MMT on average, or a 700k MT cut from the Feb report.  ABARE has raised its official Australian production estimate to 36.3 MMT vs. USDA at 34 MMT. That could result in additional export potential on the balance sheet. 

May 22 CBOT Wheat  is at $12.94, up 85 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $11.89 5/8, up 88 1/4 cents,

May 22 KCBT Wheat  is at $12.34, up 19 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $11.62 1/2, up 6 7/8 cents,

May 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $11.78 3/4, up 31 3/4 cents,