Decision Time for Hog Market

Choppy trade through last week, mostly in the form of back-and-forth triple digit moves, leaves the lean hog futures market staring at a decision point for the near term directionality. Hogs were down triple digits on Friday, with several contracts limit down ($4.75). The expanded limit for lean hogs will be $7 today. Despite the limit loss on Friday, April hogs were only down by $3.22 from Friday to Friday. The National Average Base hog price for Friday afternoon was $3.01 higher to $97.41. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 6 cents on 3/2 to $99.70.  

The weekly CoT report showed lean hog spec traders were 2,455 contracts less net long as of 3/1. That left the reporting group 74,506 contracts net long. 

Pork cutout futures went home on Friday down by $4.30 to $5.65. With the limit drop in lean hogs, they will also utilize their $8.50 expanded limits on Monday. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value for Friday afternoon was $2.42 weaker to $103.99. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for the week through Saturday at 2.427m head. That is 69k head under last week’s kill and trails the same week last year by 130k head. 

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $100.450, down $4.750,

May 22 Hogs  closed at $105.750, down $4.750

Apr 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $106.600, down $4.700,