Hogs Were Cautious Ahead of Holiday, but USDA Shows Smaller Than Expected Hog Inventory

Lean hog futures faded into the extended weekend with 5 to 42 cent losses. USDA’s National Average Base hog price for Thursday was down by 56 cents to $60.53. CME’s Lean Hog Index was down $0.69 to $72.33 for 12/21. 

The quarterly Hogs and Pigs data showed a December 1st inventory of 74.201m head. That was 4% below last year, while the trade anticipated a 2.8% drop. NASS said 6.18m head were for breeding (about as expected) while market hogs were 4.4% lower at 68m head. NASS also reported the Sep-Nov pig crop was 33.7m head off 3.012m farrowed sows. Farrowing intentions for the Dec-May quarter are down 0.2% from this year at 5.953m head. 

Weekly beef export shipments were 32k MT which brought the YTD total to 1.735 MMT on the weekly data series. 

Pork cutout futures were also weaker at the close, ending the session with 12 to 37 cent losses. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $91.47 in the PM update, that was $6.80 higher led by hams and bellies. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.885 million head through Thursday. 

Feb 22 Hogs  closed at $83.225, down $0.125,

Apr 22 Hogs  closed at $86.650, down $0.050

Feb 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $93.125, down $0.375,