PayPal Holdings Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

San Jose, California-based PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers. Valued at $51.4 billion by market cap, the company offers online payment solutions worldwide.

Shares of this fintech giant have notably underperformed the broader market over the past year. PYPL has declined 18.9% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 16.3%. In 2026, PYPL stock is down marginally, compared to the SPX’s 8.5% rise on a YTD basis. 

Narrowing the focus, PYPL has outpaced the Global X FinTech ETF (FINX). The exchange-traded fund has declined about 25.7% over the past year. Moreover, the stock’s marginal dip on a YTD basis outshines the ETF’s 11.5% losses over the same time frame.

PYPL has underperformed the broader market primarily due to intense competition from tech giants like Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) Apple Pay and Alphabet Inc.’s (GOOG) Google Pay, alongside a margin-squeezing product mix shift where growth is driven more by lower-margin unbranded processing rather than its highly profitable core branded checkout. This margin compression, paired with decelerating single-digit revenue growth, active account stagnation, and leadership transitions, has led Wall Street to re-evaluate PYPL as a mature payment processor rather than a high-growth tech platform.

On Jul. 28, PYPL shares closed up more than 4% after reporting its Q2 results. Its revenue stood at $8.7 billion, up 4.8% year over year. The company’s adjusted EPS declined 1.4% from the year-ago quarter to $1.38.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect PYPL’s EPS to remain unchanged year over year to $5.31 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion.

Among the 45 analysts covering PYPL stock, the consensus is a “Hold.” That’s based on six “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” 33 “Holds,” one “Moderate Sell,” and three “Strong Sells.”

This configuration is less bearish than a month ago, with five analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy,” and four recommending a “Strong Sell.”

On Jul. 17, Harshita Rawat from Bernstein maintained a “Hold” rating on PYPL, with a price target of $55.

While PYPL currently trades above its mean price target of $50.69, the Street-high price target of $67 suggests an upside potential of 14.9%.