Soybeans Leaking as Tariff Escalation Looms

Soybeans are trading with fractional gains in some front months and other contracts heading lower at midday.  CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price is up 3/4 cents at $9.22 3/4. Soymeal futures are up $3/ton, with Soy Oil futures back down 6 points.

President Trump has responded to the Chinese retaliatory 34% tariff with an additional 50% on Chinese goods if they don’t take back the issued 34%. He gave them a deadline of Tuesday, April 9 to withdraw the tariffs. 

USDA’s Export Inspections report indicated a total of 804,270 MT (29.5 mbu) of soybeans shipped in the week that ended on 4/3. That was down just 1.1% from the previous week but 63.5% above the same week in 2024. That was also the third largest total for this week in the year since 2002. China was the largest destination of 341,278 MT, all shipped before the 34% retaliatory tariff was issued (though it still includes a 10% duty), with 140,658 MT to Egypt. Shipments for the marketing year have totaled 41.555 MMT (1.527 bbu), a 10.6% increase from the same week last year.  

 

Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec traders in soybean future and options cutting back 13,112 contracts from their net short as of Tuesday. They held a net short of 29,847 contracts as of April 1.

AgRural estimates the Brazilian soybean crop at 88% harvested, with the last year at 85%.

May 25 Soybeans  are at $9.77 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

Nearby Cash  is at $9.22 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 25 Soybeans  are at $9.92 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

Nov 25 Soybeans  are at $9.81, down 3 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $9.19 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,