June’s Top Commodity Performers and Underperformers

In the commodities asset class in June 2026, ICE cocoa, ICE Arabica coffee futures and gasoline and distillate crack spreads posted double-digit percentage gains. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, WTI and Brent crude oil, Bitcoin, and Ethereum posted double-digit percentage declines. The leading stock market indices were steady, while the long bond futures were slightly higher. The September dollar index futures rose by 2.41%. The long bond futures rose by 0.50%. A higher dollar index weighed on many commodity prices. Long-term interest rates edged lower, but remain elevated. 

Energy Prices Fall

The hopes of a settlement between Iran and the United States that opens the Strait of Hormuz, a critical logistical chokepoint for crude oil, a breakup of OPEC as the UAE left the cartel, and withdrawals from the U.S. and other SPRs send crude oil, oil product, natural gas, ethanol, and Rotterdam coal prices lower in June.  

The monthly August NYMEX WTI crude oil futures chart shows that the price fell 18.52% in June. Brent crude oil, the benchmark for Middle Eastern petroleum, kept pace with the WTI, posting an 18.18% monthly decline on the ICE September contract. 

Gasoline futures moved 2.18% lower, while heating oil futures, which are a proxy for other distillate fuels, fell 5.95%. The products fell far less than crude oil as the lag between refinery stocks and crude oil supplies kept product prices elevated. 

Crack spreads reflect the refining margins for processing crude oil into gasoline and distillate products. The gasoline crack spread moved 32.50% higher in June, while the distillate crack spread posted a 12.18% gain. Prices at the pump have a long lag behind crude oil prices. Moreover, elevated crack spreads have caused products to far outperform crude oil prices. 

August Chicago ethanol swaps, the biofuel additive to U.S. gasoline, fell 6.34% for the month, while coal for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, fell 8.25% in June. Meanwhile, August U.S. natural gas futures prices edged 1.30% lower as natural gas is entering the cooling season. European natural gas prices were steady due to the upcoming cooling season and Middle Eastern supply concerns. U.K. natural gas futures prices for August and natural gas futures prices in the Netherlands were slightly lower in June. The Middle East continued to cause elevated price levels. 

Metals Plunge

Precious metal prices soared in 2025 and early 2026, but they ran out of upside steam in late January. 

Gold, the leading precious metal, moved 12.07% lower in June. The volatile silver futures market moved 21.61% lower. NYMEX palladium futures fell 12.37%, while NYMEX platinum futures moved 19.71% lower. I will detail thoughts on the precious metals plunge later in the report. 

Copper, the leading nonferrous metal, experienced a 3.02% decline in the September futures contract. September COMEX copper rose to a new record high of $6.7160 in mid-May before correcting. Base metals were lower in June.

The daily chart highlights a short-term bearish trend in copper following its new record high in May 2026.

Nonferrous metals on the London Metals Exchange posted across-the-board declines. LME three-month copper forwards moved lower in June. LME aluminum three-month forwards plunged amid potential for an agreement in the Middle East.  LME nickel forwards were substantially lower, LME lead forwards moved to the downside, LME zinc prices edged lower, and LME tin forwards dropped. 

Grains and softs were mixed, and lumber moved higher

The growing season in the Northern Hemisphere continued in June. While the grain and oilseed markets have faced fertilizer shortages due to issues at the Strait of Hormuz, prices declined in June. New crop November Soybean futures prices moved 3.89% lower, while new crop December corn futures fell 8.21%, and September CBOT soft red winter wheat futures moved 5.49% lower. There seems to be no significant problems during the growing season, which sent prices lower in June. 

The physical lumber futures for September delivery moved 2.90% higher in June. 

The 2026 peak grilling season arrived in late May and runs through early September. Cattle prices remain near record highs and posted gains in June. The live and feeder cattle futures for August delivery rose 1.41% and 4.64%, respectively, in June. Meanwhile, the lean hog futures for August delivery rose 2.45% for the month.  

Soft commodities were mostly higher in June, with September cocoa and October world sugar futures rising 26.98% and 1.93%, respectively. Cocoa exploded higher on concerns over West African weather and supplies, while sugar has followed events in the Middle East, as Brazil depends on sugarcane for ethanol production. Cotton futures for December delivery fell 3.51% in June. September Arabica coffee futures rose 14.59%. The volatile September FCOJ futures edged only 0.52% higher in June. 

Spotlight on gold and silver- Can silver support hold?

Since reaching record highs in late January, COMEX gold and silver futures continued to plunge in June, with gold falling 12.07% and silver dropping 21.61%.

The chart shows that after reaching a record high of $5,706 on January 29, 2026, gold continued to fall in June, reaching a new low of $3,955.40 per ounce on June 30. August COMEX gold futures settled near $4,040 per ounce on June 30 and remain in a bearish trend, making lower highs and lower lows since late January. 

The long-term quarterly chart highlights that after reaching a record high of $121.785 on January 29, 2026, COMEX silver futures over halved in value to a $56.13 low on June 26. Silver was below $60 per ounce on June 30, and remains in a bearish trend, making lower highs and lower lows since late January. Silver is approaching a test of the critical technical support at the 1980 high of $50.36 per ounce. A move below that level would likely negate the current bullish long-term trend. The bottom line is that silver must hold above $50, or many silver bulls could throw in the towel. A wave of long liquidation could send volatile silver prices lower.

As I wrote in the end of May report:

JPMorgan analysts forecast that gold will reach $6,000 per ounce in the second half of 2026. UBS expects gold to reach $5,500 this year, while Bank of America is forecasting a $6,000 target. Goldman Sachs is slightly more conservative, with a $5,400 per ounce target. 

Some financial institutions have revised forecasts lower, given the price action over the past month. Platinum and palladium futures prices moved lower with gold and silver, posting declines of 19.71% and 12.37%, respectively, in June. 

I am not bearish on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium at the end-of-June prices, but I am cautious and will use tight stops on any long positions. 

Factors to watch in July 2026

As commodities move into July, they face uncertainty in the economic and geopolitical landscapes, while the vacation season could cause liquidity to decline, a cocktail for potential volatility.  Seasonality favors some strength in meats and gasoline. The situation in the Middle East will continue to dictate the path of least resistance for energy and other commodity prices.  The upcoming midterm elections could impact markets as the administration’s policy initiatives depend on the outcome.

Cryptocurrencies are weak. The dollar index has drifted higher, and bonds remain in a trading range at an elevated level, which is not bullish for commodities. 

The bull market in stocks continues, but the economic and geopolitical landscapes will determine the path of least resistance for U.S. stocks. Bonds have not broken out of their long-term consolidation pattern, but interest rates remain elevated. Interest rates could decline if oil prices continue to decline and inflation data cools. However, the lag between falling oil and gasoline prices could keep inflation elevated. Crack spreads remain elevated, translating to high oil product prices. 

Summer trading conditions in July and August tend to reduce liquidity, which can lead to increased volatility. 

Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in July 2026 and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed. The volatility creates opportunities, but any new trade or investment requires careful attention to risk-reward dynamics to enhance profits and protect capital.