Stock Index Futures Gain at Quarter-End, U.S. JOLTS Report and Nike Earnings on Tap

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU26) are up +0.10%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU26) are up +0.16% this morning, putting the major indexes on track for their strongest quarterly gains in years.

The price of WTI crude was little changed on Tuesday ahead of the expected U.S.-Iran talks in Qatar. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that the U.S. will meet with Iran today in Doha. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner are set to attend, according to the White House. Meanwhile, Iran reaffirmed its intention to control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes ahead of the new round of peace talks.

Investors are also awaiting a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, with particular focus on the job openings figures, and an earnings report from sneaker giant Nike.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Tesla (TSLA) climbing over +8% and Alphabet (GOOGL) rising more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow. Also, chip stocks rallied, with KLA Corp. (KLAC) jumping about +12% and Applied Materials (AMAT) surging more than +10%. In addition, Rocket Lab (RKLB) soared over +15% and was among the top percentage gainers on the Nasdaq 100 after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite company Iridium Communications, bringing its business model closer to that of SpaceX. On the bearish side, Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) slumped more than -5% after the construction materials giant agreed to combine with Lhoist North America in a deal valued at $13.5 billion, including debt.

“The bounce we’re seeing is a welcome development for the bulls. We continue to believe strongly that the action in the tech sector will continue to be the main driver in the stock market,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.

Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets’ Lori Calvasina raised her 12-month target for the S&P 500 index to 8,150 from 7,900 on Monday, citing earnings strength and a supportive macro backdrop as drivers of further gains in equities.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday rejected President Trump’s bid to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. In a 5-4 decision, the Court upheld the lower courts’ rulings that Cook could remain at the central bank as her legal challenge to the termination proceeds. The ruling “offers some comfort with respect to Fed independence,” according to Ameriprise’s Russell Price.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. JOLTS Job Openings figures, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that May JOLTS Job Openings will come in at 7.280 million, compared to the April figure of 7.618 million.

The U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate that the June figure will stand at 94.4, compared to 93.1 in May.

The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. will be released today. Economists expect the April figure to rise +0.9% y/y, compared to +0.8% y/y in March.

The U.S. Chicago PMI will be released today as well. Economists forecast the June figure at 55.7, compared to the previous value of 62.7.

On the earnings front, sneaker giant Nike (NKE) and Corona maker Constellation Brands (STZ) are set to report their quarterly figures today.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 68.5% probability of no rate change and a 31.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the July FOMC meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.37%, down -0.18%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +1.04% this morning, hitting a new record high on the final day of a blockbuster quarter. Mining and technology stocks led the gains on Tuesday. Healthcare stocks also advanced, led by a more than +35% jump in Abivax (ABVX.FP) after the drugmaker reported positive topline results from its obefazimod study. Preliminary data released on Tuesday showed that France’s and Italy’s annual inflation rates slowed more than expected in June, indicating that price pressures are easing amid lower energy costs due to the cooling of tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Softer inflation comes as an encouraging sign for the European Central Bank. Investors are now awaiting preliminary inflation data from Germany for June due later in the session. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Tuesday that the unexpectedly sharp decline in energy prices over the past week has further eased pressure on ECB policymakers to raise interest rates next month, though the case for a hike later remains intact. In other news, the European Union will reduce the volume of tariff-free steel its member states can import starting Wednesday, as part of efforts to shield the bloc’s steel industry from overcapacity. The new system would cap tariff-free steel imports at 18.3 million metric tons, while tariffs on volumes above that quota would increase to 50% from the previous 25%. In corporate news, Siemens Energy AG (ENR.D.DX) rose over +4% after the AI-equipment maker reaffirmed strong demand trends during its pre-close quarterly earnings call on Monday.

U.K. GDP, Germany’s Retail Sales, Germany’s Unemployment Change, Germany’s Unemployment Rate, France’s CPI (preliminary), and Italy’s CPI (preliminary) data were released today.

U.K. GDP rose +0.6% q/q and +0.9% y/y in the first quarter, compared to expectations of +0.6% q/q and +1.1% y/y.

The German May Retail Sales unexpectedly climbed +1.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of no change m/m and no change y/y.

The German June Unemployment Change stood at -1K, stronger than expectations of 7K.

The German June Unemployment Rate was 6.3%, in line with expectations.

The French June CPI fell -0.2% m/m and rose +1.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of no change m/m and +2.1% y/y.

The Italian June CPI was unchanged m/m and rose +3.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.1% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.50%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.86%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as investors welcomed stronger-than-expected PMI data. Semiconductor and other AI-related stocks outperformed on Tuesday. Limiting gains, financial and consumer stocks slumped. An official survey released on Tuesday showed that China’s factory activity returned to expansion in June, supported in part by resilient exports driven by strong global demand for AI and green products. Also, China’s non-manufacturing PMI, which covers both services and construction activity, expanded for a second straight month in June. The readings suggest the world’s second-largest economy continues to be underpinned by solid overseas demand for Chinese goods despite subdued domestic demand. “The best set of official PMI readings in ten months suggests that China’s economy has regained some momentum,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics. Meanwhile, China’s central bank stepped up liquidity injections on Tuesday, doubling the amount of cash supplied through overnight reverse repos as seasonal demand at month-end intensified. The People's Bank of China provided 600 billion yuan ($88.3 billion) to financial institutions through overnight reverse repos in open market operations, it said in a statement that did not disclose the borrowing cost. Reuters reported that the PBOC kept the interest rate on its new overnight liquidity tool unchanged at 1.25%, the same level as in the inaugural operation a day earlier. In corporate news, Tongcheng Travel slid over -4% in Hong Kong after the travel services provider announced an offer to acquire ride-hailing app Dida. Investor attention now shifts to the RatingDog PMI surveys, which place greater emphasis on China’s smaller private-sector companies and are due later this week.

The Chinese June Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, stronger than expectations of 50.1.

The Chinese June Non-Manufacturing PMI arrived at 50.2, stronger than expectations of 49.9.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, tracking a tech-led rally on Wall Street overnight as investors piled back into companies viewed as beneficiaries of the AI buildout. Chip stocks led the gains on Tuesday. Also aiding sentiment, oil prices fell in Tokyo trading ahead of the expected U.S.-Iran talks in Qatar. The Nikkei surged 37% over the past three months, marking its strongest quarterly gain since records began in 1965. Meanwhile, the yen dropped to a 40-year low against the dollar on Tuesday, putting traders on high alert for possible intervention by authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan stands ready to respond appropriately to developments in the foreign exchange market at any time. Elsewhere, Japan’s super-long government bond yields climbed on Tuesday as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending plans deepened concerns over fiscal expansion. On the economic front, preliminary data showed that Japan’s monthly industrial production rose in May, though at a slower-than-expected pace, as manufacturers managed to weather the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Investor focus is now squarely on the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment, scheduled for release on Wednesday, with economists expecting gauges to remain broadly stable in positive territory. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -11.67% to 38.30.

The Japanese May Industrial Production (preliminary) rose +0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m.

The Japanese May Unemployment Rate was 2.5%, in line with expectations.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

AeroVironment (AVAV) jumped over +23% in pre-market trading after the drone and defense technology provider posted better-than-expected FQ4 results.

Applied Materials (AMAT) rose over +3% and Lam Research (LRCX) advanced more than +2% in pre-market trading, extending yesterday’s gains after South Korean memory chip giants SK Hynix and Samsung announced a $500 billion spending plan.

Nutrien (NTR) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after Scotiabank upgraded the stock to Outperform from Sector Perform with an $80 price target.

Concentrix (CNXC) tumbled more than -24% in pre-market trading after the AI-powered customer experience platform reported downbeat FQ2 results and cut its full-year guidance.

The Trade Desk (TTD) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after Arete downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral with an $11.60 price target.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - June 30th

Nike (NKE), Constellation Brands (STZ), Progress Software (PRGS).