Elliott Wave Webinar: Dollar Up, Stocks Up, Who Is Wrong?

Good morning everyone, and I hope you had a wonderful weekend.

As discussed in yesterday's webinar, we have seen a strong recovery in the US dollar since the FOMC meeting, as the Fed delivered a slightly hawkish message. As a result, expectations for rate cuts have continued to decline, while the probability of rate hikes later this year and even into 2027 has increased. This was the key market driver last week and contributed to the modest pullback seen across equity markets.

We also covered the latest developments surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. Iran recently stated that the talks in Switzerland showed positive progress regarding implementation by the other side, which could help support a more positive market sentiment at the start of the week. However, investors should remain focused on several important US economic releases ahead.

Particular attention was given to the upcoming GDP and PCE inflation reports, scheduled for June 25. The PCE report remains the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and could play an important role in shaping future interest rate expectations. We discussed how these releases may influence US Treasury yields and whether yields will retrace, remain range-bound, or extend their recent advance. We also highlighted the upcoming Australian CPI data, another event worth monitoring closely.

From a technical perspective, we reviewed the recent recovery in the US Dollar Index and noted that, despite the bullish momentum, some near-term retracement remains possible. We also pointed out that EUR/USD appeared vulnerable to a break below the March lows before any larger recovery could unfold.

In this Elliott Wave webinar, Grega Horvat reviewed the latest developments across global markets, including the US-Iran negotiations, crude oil, stock markets, precious metals, currencies, and other key markets, while outlining potential Elliott Wave scenarios for the days and weeks ahead.