Stocks Set to Open Mixed as Investors Weigh U.S.-Iran Progress, PCE Inflation Data and Fed Speak Awaited

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU26) are down -0.10%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU26) are up +0.11% this morning, pointing to a mixed open on Wall Street after a long weekend as investors weigh the progress of U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.

Qatar and Pakistan said in a joint statement early Monday that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a roadmap aimed at reaching a final peace agreement within 60 days. The countries began technical negotiations in the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock over the weekend, following the interim agreement they reached last week. “Encouraging progress has been made, including the creation of a mechanism for further technical talks,” Qatar and Pakistan said. The sides also set up a communication channel to prevent incidents and miscalculations, with the goal of ensuring the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Both countries also agreed to establish a mechanism to ensure the cessation of military operations in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran said there had been “major progress” in discussions with the U.S.

The price of WTI crude reversed earlier gains and edged lower on Monday. Oil prices initially surged after Iran said on Saturday that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz as tensions escalated in Lebanon, while U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened military action against Iran if Hezbollah militants continued their attacks on Israel.

Treasuries fell across the curve on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising three basis points to 4.49% as traders continued to price in the prospect of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

This week, investors are looking ahead to a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, with particular focus on the PCE inflation reading, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and earnings reports from several high-profile companies.

In Thursday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended in the green. Chip stocks rallied, led by a more than +10% jump in Intel (INTC) after President Trump said that Apple had agreed to partner with the company to design and manufacture chips in the U.S. Also, the Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon.com (AMZN) rising nearly +3%. In addition, Smith & Wesson (SWBI) jumped over +17% after the company posted better-than-expected FQ4 results. On the bearish side, Accenture (ACN) plunged more than -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the consulting giant issued below-consensus FQ4 revenue guidance.

Economic data released on Thursday were positive for equities. The number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -4K to 226K, compared with the 225K expected. Also, the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to 10.3 in June, stronger than expectations of 9.8. In addition, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. rose +0.1% m/m in May, in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 67.9% probability of no rate change and a 32.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next central bank meeting in July.

This week, the May reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight. Economists expect the core PCE price index to accelerate on both a monthly and annual basis last month. “Elevated PCE core inflation numbers could add to rate hike expectations,” according to Mark Dowding at BlueBay Fixed Income. The report will cap a month of disappointing inflation data, with earlier releases showing the effects of the energy shock spreading throughout the economy. Preliminary U.S. June purchasing managers’ surveys for manufacturing and services will also attract attention. If the surveys point to strong activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, it would reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike by year-end. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. GDP (third estimate), Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Spending, Personal Income, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, New Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories (preliminary), and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

Market watchers will also pay close attention to speeches from Fed officials, particularly after new Chairman Kevin Warsh refused last week to provide any clues about his own outlook for inflation or interest rates. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are scheduled to speak this week.

In addition, high-profile companies such as memory chipmaker Micron Technology (MU), shipping giant FedEx (FDX), AI chip developer Cerebras Systems (CBRS), and cruise company Carnival Corporation (CCL) are set to report their quarterly results this week.

The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Monday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.49%, up +0.56%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.17% this morning as investors assessed the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran peace talks. Investors also monitored the latest turmoil in U.K. politics after Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation on Monday. Construction, retail, and automobile stocks underperformed on Monday. Limiting losses, travel and technology stocks advanced. Investors this week will closely watch preliminary Eurozone PMI data for June. “We expect some reversal in the recent deterioration in the composite PMI as the news over the Memorandum of Understanding is taken positively,” said Lottie Gosling at Investec. Germany’s Ifo business climate index for June and the European Central Bank’s inflation expectations survey will also be in focus. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde will testify before the European Parliament later today. In corporate news, EasyJet Plc (EZJ.LN) rose over +2% after its board rejected Castlelake’s third takeover proposal valued at 4.74 billion pounds ($6.27 billion), though the U.S. investment firm urged shareholders to back its plan to take the company private.

The European economic data slate is mainly empty on Monday.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.78%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.55%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed sharply higher today, supported by an improving earnings outlook and robust risk appetite. Broker and new energy stocks led the gains on Monday. Chip and other AI-related stocks also climbed, buoyed by a more supportive policy tone from Beijing and continued strong global demand for AI. Meng Lei, China strategist at UBS Securities, said she expects earnings growth for A-shares to reach 11% this year, up from 3.9% in 2025. “We think the rollout of more supportive policies, progress in anti-involution, and rising contribution of overseas revenue can help margin expansion,” she said. Meng also highlighted signs of growing risk appetite in China, including an ongoing shift of household deposits into equities and record-high levels of margin financing. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs on Monday cut its second-quarter GDP growth forecast for China to 3.5% from 4.0%, citing weak economic data for April and May that fell short of expectations, except for exports and industrial production. Still, China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 13th straight month on Monday, signaling that authorities are in no hurry to ease policy despite uneven domestic growth. The one-year loan prime rate was left unchanged at 3.00%, while the five-year LPR remained steady at 3.50%, according to the People’s Bank of China. Elsewhere, China imposed trade curbs on dozens of U.S. entities, including two rare-earth producers, in a tit-for-tat response to Washington’s recent move to expand its list of military-linked companies. In corporate news, shares of AI company Shenzhen HQVT Technology more than tripled in their Hong Kong trading debut, indicating that investor appetite for AI-related stocks remains exceptionally strong. Investor attention this week is on China’s industrial profit data for May.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher and hit a new record high today amid continued optimism surrounding the AI trade. Semiconductor and other AI-related stocks were among the biggest gainers on Monday. Fujikura jumped over +19%, extending last Friday’s gains after the wire and cable maker raised its full-year profit guidance. Sentiment toward the tech sector was also bolstered after the Nikkei reported on Friday that Japan plans to target about $2.3 trillion in combined public and private investment in strategic sectors, including AI and semiconductors, by 2040. The benchmark index closed above the 72,000 mark for the first time. Meanwhile, benchmark Japanese government bond yields extended their gains for a third consecutive day on Monday, as concerns about inflation and fiscal policy persisted. Elsewhere, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that authorities stand ready to respond appropriately to currency movements at any time, reiterating the warning as the yen trades near a four-decade low. In corporate news, J. Front Retailing surged more than +15% after activist investor 3D Investment Partners disclosed a 5.10% stake in the company. Investor focus this week is on Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI for June, which is expected to reflect the impact of rising energy prices, although the underlying inflation trend may be clouded by the effects of subsidies. Japan’s flash PMIs for June will also draw attention. In addition, market participants will closely monitor speeches from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino and board member Naoki Tamura, along with the summary of opinions from the BOJ’s June meeting. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -1.70% to 29.43.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip and AI infrastructure stocks climbed in pre-market trading, with Western Digital (WDC) rising over +6% and Micron Technology (MU) gaining more than +4%.

The Magnificent Seven stocks edged lower in pre-market trading, with Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) falling over -1%.

Getty Images (GETY) spiked over +184% in pre-market trading after the company announced a multi-year content display partnership with OpenAI.

Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) jumped more than +51% in pre-market trading after the Financial Times reported that AbbVie was closing in on a nearly $11 billion deal to buy the company.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) advanced over +3% in pre-market trading after GF Securities upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a $48 price target.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - June 22nd

Fervo Energy Company (FRVO), Addex Therapeutics (ADXN).