The July contract ended sub-$12 as the last domino to fall for the decline. The front month contracts were 9 to 10 cents in the red at the end of Friday’s trading, with March down by 5 cents for the week and Nov by 7 ¼ cents. Soymeal futures ended the day $2.20 to $2.40/ton lower past March’s 30 cent drop on Friday. That left the March contract at a net weekly loss of $10/ton. Front month Soy oil prices faded on Friday with 51 to 68 point losses, but were still up by 2.5 cents for the week.
CFTC’s weekly update had managed money firms adding 24k shorts in soybeans during the week that ended 2/6. With a few new longs added as well, that raised their net short 22k contracts to 130k contracts. Commercial soybean hedgers were mostly closing existing shorts, though with some new longs added the group grew their net long by 17k contracts to 38,792. Managed money traders were shown adding longs to their meal position, with 5k new contracts in play and a 14,590 contract net short. The funds were 44,225 contracts net short in soybean oil as of 2/6, a 10k contract weaker position for the week.
Canadian canola stocks were confirmed at 12.85 MMT as of December 31 via the StatsCan data release. That was below the average of pre-report estimates, but within the range and was 1.3% above Dec ’22.
The global updates reduced world soybean output by 770k MT to 398.2 MMT. USDA cut Brazil by 1 MMT to 156, though CONAB cut Brazil’s soybean production 5.9 MMT to 149.4 MMT - via a yield cut of 1.7 bpa to 51. It’s worth noting that USDA found another 2 MMT of old crop Brazilian bean production, raising this year’s beginning stocks. World bean trade was 370k MT lower to 170.6 MMT, with stocks 1.43 MMT looser at 116 MMT. The trade was expecting to see a 113 MMT carryout but did not anticipate the old crop Brazilian revision
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $11.83 1/2, down 10 cents,
Nearby Cash was $11.30 3/8, down 10 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.90, down 9 3/4 cents,
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.99 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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